B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AROC
ArchrockBNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source earnings commentary still supports a constructive operating backdrop: contract operations revenue rose 10% year over year to $330.9 million, adjusted gross margin reached 72%, ending utilization stayed at 95%, and management maintained 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance despite the post-print selloff [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.1.
What can break
Aftermarket services revenue fell to $42.9 million from $46.8 million and adjusted gross margin percentage fell to 23% from 25%, showing some mix and activity volatility [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Momentum
18
Value
54
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $36.00 · Bull $42.00 · Bear $31.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $42.22
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d -5.3
Value54 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment72 · Δ7d -1.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Aftermarket services revenue fell to $42.9 million from $46.8 million and adjusted gross margin percentage fell to 23% from 25%, showing some mix and activity volatility [#8-K-2026-05-06].
- • At $38.10, the stock sits above the packet's $36.00 median target summary, increasing downside sensitivity if subsequent quarters are only in-line.
- • The T+3 follow-up found an earnings miss versus consensus, higher-than-expected SG&A, softer aftermarket services revenue and margin, and a stock reaction that suggests investors were looking for a clearer beat/raise.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-20
Post-earnings digestion after Q1 miss but maintained 2026 EBITDA guide
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-5.3
Δ21d
-15.4
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
72
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
-7.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 17.5 / Value 53.7 / Sentiment 71.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$5.25B
Beta
0.92
Shares Out
175.34M
P/E (TTM)
17.5
P/S (TTM)
3.22
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
37.57
Rev YoY
-3.1%
EPS YoY
+5.7%
Gross Margin
+48.9%
Op Margin
+38.3%
Net Debt
$2.42B
Current Ratio
1.39
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data