B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.95
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
ARLO
ArloFNYSE / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull: successful shift to higher-margin subscription revenue, sustained ARR growth, and margin expansion lead to multiple expansion and recovery in free cash flow.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
Delay in subscription ARPU growth
Momentum
11
Value
52
Sentiment
16
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $1.44 · Bull $1.95 · Bear $1.01Analysis 2025-10-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-10-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $21.00
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d -9.5
Value52 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment16 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Delay in subscription ARPU growth
- • Earnings miss on revenue or subscribers
- • Bear: continued weak hardware volumes, intensified price competition, and slower-than-expected subscription monetization compress revenue and force deeper discounting.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Competitive pressure and hardware sales decline
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
11
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.5
Δ21d
-61.0
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.9
Sentiment
16
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 10.8 / Value 52.2 / Sentiment 15.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-10-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$1.44
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$1.01
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.48B
Beta
1.66
Shares Out
107.61M
P/E (TTM)
393.2
P/S (TTM)
2.88
P/FCF (TTM)
26.87
Rev YoY
+20.5%
EPS YoY
-5.5%
Gross Margin
+46.0%
Op Margin
+3.2%
Net Debt
-$157.77M
Current Ratio
1.40
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data