B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ARKO
ARKOCNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
First-half adjusted EBITDA rose 14% year over year, Q2 merchandise margin expanded 110 basis points to 34.7%, and APC's proposed USPP acquisition could add scale if completed and integrated as expected. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-07]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
Higher credit-card fees contributed to Q2 expense pressure despite dealerization benefits. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-07]
Momentum
12
Value
59
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.80 · Bull $5.00 · Bear $2.90Analysis 2026-10-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.50
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d -2.4
Value59 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -47.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Higher credit-card fees contributed to Q2 expense pressure despite dealerization benefits. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-07]
- • Softening consumer demand and lower retail fuel volumes could overwhelm fuel-margin gains. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-07]
- • Q2 adjusted EBITDA declined year over year despite stronger margins.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-15
Test of reaffirmed 2026 guidance
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
12
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
+8.5
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-47.0
Δ21d
-47.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 12.2 / Value 59.1 / Sentiment 52.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$431.92M
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
112.19M
P/E (TTM)
39.1
P/S (TTM)
0.06
P/FCF (TTM)
27.96
Rev YoY
+17.4%
EPS YoY
-75.0%
Gross Margin
+3.5%
Op Margin
+1.5%
Net Debt
$2.25B
Current Ratio
1.60
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data