B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ARI
Apollo Commercial Real Estate FinanceBNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The reported $0.15 of Distributable Earnings before realized losses suggests underlying earnings capacity may be better than the headline negative figure. At $6.83, ARI is below the reported $8.00 median target, but the target count is unavailable and the valuation signal is weak.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.2.
What can break
Dividend-support assessment is sensitive to distributable earnings after realized losses.
Momentum
38
Value
61
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.10 · Bull $8.00 · Bear $5.50Analysis 2026-08-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.00
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d +0.7
Value61 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +2.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Dividend-support assessment is sensitive to distributable earnings after realized losses.
- • No reliable analyst revision, consensus-surprise, or target-change data is available.
- • The negative $2.62 of Distributable Earnings highlights material realized-loss and transaction sensitivity.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-10
Q2 earnings quality reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
38
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
+1.3
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
+5.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 38.5 / Value 61.1 / Sentiment 66.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$7.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$875.69M
Beta
1.58
Shares Out
128.21M
P/E (TTM)
11.1
P/S (TTM)
1.88
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-7.18
Rev YoY
-240.0%
EPS YoY
-12.4%
Gross Margin
+45.0%
Op Margin
+78.0%
Net Debt
$7.78B
Current Ratio
2.43
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data