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ARI

Apollo Commercial Real Estate FinanceA
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-20
View Chart
Current thesis
Primary sources support a tangible asset-value backstop: ARI completed the Athene sale, cited roughly $12.05 pro forma book value per share after closing, approved a $150 million buyback, and cut the management fee during the strategy review period, which together support a discount-to-book recovery argument if capital deployment is disciplined [#PR-2026-04-24] [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +46.3.
What can break
Book value per share declined from $12.14 in 4Q25 to $12.01 in 1Q26, limiting room for a clean rerating if redeployment or buybacks disappoint [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Momentum
25
Value
70
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.10 · Bull $12.30 · Bear $9.60
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-20
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-20 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-20 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-20
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.75
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d -3.1
Value70 · Δ7d +12.8
Sentiment85 · Δ7d +46.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
25
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
-27.2
Value
70
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.8
Δ21d
+13.2
Sentiment
85
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+46.3
Δ21d
+51.2
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 25.2 / Value 70.5 / Sentiment 84.7

Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-20
Market Cap
$894.37M
Beta
1.58
Shares Out
130.95M
P/E (TTM)
11.1
P/S (TTM)
1.88
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-7.55
Rev YoY
-16.7%
EPS YoY
+0.5%
Gross Margin
+81.1%
Op Margin
+15.9%
Net Debt
$7.78B
Current Ratio
0.14
As of 2026-07-20 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology