B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$9.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ARCO
Arcos DoradosCNYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The earnings release showed broad-based operating strength: record revenue, positive traffic across all divisions, higher EBITDA margins, strong digital and loyalty engagement, improved free cash flow, and lower leverage. These results support a potential rerating if second-half traffic and margins hold.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
What can break
Consumer spending pressure and Latin American currency volatility could weaken reported sales and margins.
Momentum
43
Value
63
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.10 · Bull $9.60 · Bear $6.70Analysis 2026-08-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.29
Why
Momentum43 · Δ7d +7.4
Value63 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +4.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Consumer spending pressure and Latin American currency volatility could weaken reported sales and margins.
- • Higher payroll and occupancy costs may offset further food-and-paper or G&A efficiencies.
- • The market reaction was not sustained: ARCO rose 3.04% on August 13, then fell 2.83% on August 14 and 0.76% on August 17.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-13
Q2 2026 earnings reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
43
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.4
Δ21d
+17.6
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
-5.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 42.8 / Value 62.7 / Sentiment 59.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$6.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.64B
Beta
0.46
Shares Out
208.35M
P/E (TTM)
6.6
P/S (TTM)
0.36
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
35.84
Rev YoY
+14.3%
EPS YoY
+99.3%
Gross Margin
+12.4%
Op Margin
+6.0%
Net Debt
$1.82B
Current Ratio
0.88
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data