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ARCO

Arcos DoradosC
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue grew 14.3% to $1.31 billion, guest volume improved, and last-twelve-month adjusted free cash flow reached $143.4 million. Sustained operating gains could help fund the announced expansion [#PR-2026-08-13] (SEC-filed release).
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
What can break
Consumer demand, food costs, and Latin American currency movements could weaken dollar-denominated results.
Momentum
75
Value
62
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.30 · Bull $9.50 · Bear $5.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.12
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d +18.5
Value62 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -0.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Consumer demand, food costs, and Latin American currency movements could weaken dollar-denominated results.
  • • Q2 reported Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded only 10 basis points despite strong sales growth [#PR-2026-08-13].
  • • The 2027–2030 plan requires substantial capital expenditure, while Q2 reported Adjusted EBITDA margin improved just 10 basis points.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-01

Investor Day financial framework

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
75
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+18.5
Δ21d
+30.8
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
45
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-22.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 74.7 / Value 61.6 / Sentiment 44.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$7.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.69B
Beta
0.46
Shares Out
208.35M
P/E (TTM)
6.6
P/S (TTM)
0.36
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
36.89
Rev YoY
+14.3%
EPS YoY
+99.3%
Gross Margin
+12.4%
Op Margin
+6.0%
Net Debt
$1.82B
Current Ratio
0.88
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data