B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$138.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ARCB
ArcBestCNasdaq / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish interpretation is that Q1 may mark a transition quarter: Asset-Based shipments and tonnage grew, Asset-Light profitability improved sharply year over year, April trends accelerated, and company guidance implies better Q2 sequential performance. Trusted post-print coverage also framed adjusted EPS as slightly ahead of consensus, which supports the idea that operating momentum is improving faster than headline GAAP earnings suggest.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.
What can break
Asset-Based margin pressure remains visible, with operating income down to $17.5 million and operating ratio worsening to 97.3% as labor, fuel, and depreciation costs rose [#8-K-2026-04-28].
Momentum
65
Value
56
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $123.00 · Bull $138.00 · Bear $108.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $170.92
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d -1.4
Value56 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +0.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Asset-Based margin pressure remains visible, with operating income down to $17.5 million and operating ratio worsening to 97.3% as labor, fuel, and depreciation costs rose [#8-K-2026-04-28].
- • Management's own safe-harbor language highlights exposure to freight-demand softness, manufacturing and supply-chain disruption, pricing pressure, labor relations and union wage inflation, equipment cost inflation, and execution risk around technology initiatives including Vaux [#8-K-2026-04-28] [#10-K-2026-02-25].
- • The bearish interpretation is that the quarter still produced a GAAP loss, Asset-Based operating ratio worsened year over year, revenue per hundredweight fell as mix shifted toward heavier freight, and cost inflation from labor, fuel, and depreciation remains a headwind.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Post-earnings digestion of Q1 print and Q2 setup
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
65
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
+28.6
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.5
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+2.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 65.0 / Value 55.5 / Sentiment 51.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$123.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$108.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.26B
Beta
1.52
Shares Out
22.35M
P/E (TTM)
19.4
P/S (TTM)
0.46
P/FCF (TTM)
33.25
Rev YoY
+15.9%
EPS YoY
-155.1%
Gross Margin
+7.2%
Op Margin
+3.1%
Net Debt
$340.35M
Current Ratio
0.97
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data