B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$420.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
APP
AppLovinANasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue grew 53% year over year to $1.924 billion, adjusted EBITDA reached $1.614 billion, and free cash flow was $863 million. Meeting Q3 guidance while expanding self-serve advertiser spending could rebuild confidence.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.8.
What can break
AppLovin's September Ad Review change highlights the importance of publisher trust and data-governance execution; its financial effect is unknown. AppLovin CEO post
Momentum
9
Value
54
Sentiment
79
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $325.00 · Bull $420.00 · Bear $225.00Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $478.05
Why
Momentum9 · Δ7d +0.8
Value54 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment79 · Δ7d +2.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AppLovin's September Ad Review change highlights the importance of publisher trust and data-governance execution; its financial effect is unknown. AppLovin CEO post
- • Competition, scaling to support new customers, and adaptation to emerging advertising technologies are risks identified in AppLovin's Q2 release. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
- • Strong reported growth has not prevented estimate-risk concerns.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-29
Q3 results test the August guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
9
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+0.5
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
79
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
-5.4
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 8.6 / Value 54.4 / Sentiment 79.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$325.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$87.09B
Beta
2.50
Shares Out
334.65M
P/E (TTM)
78.1
P/S (TTM)
38.74
P/FCF (TTM)
62.86
Rev YoY
+52.8%
EPS YoY
+80.3%
Gross Margin
+87.7%
Op Margin
+77.7%
Net Debt
$1.06B
Current Ratio
4.30
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data