B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$500.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
APP
AppLovinANasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue grew 53% year over year, adjusted EBITDA grew 58%, margins remained near 84%, and cash generation was strong. The Q3 revenue midpoint implies roughly 7.6% sequential growth from Q2.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.6.
What can break
AI, product, competitive, or advertiser-retention concerns could pressure growth and valuation.
Momentum
3
Value
53
Sentiment
93
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $380.00 · Bull $500.00 · Bear $250.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $506.03
Why
Momentum3 · Δ7d +0.2
Value53 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment93 · Δ7d +7.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AI, product, competitive, or advertiser-retention concerns could pressure growth and valuation.
- • AppLovin's 10-K cites client retention and spending, competition, technological change, platform dependence, and scaling risks as material exposures [#10-K-2026-02-19].
- • Revenue was modestly below the packet's pre-print expectation, the Q3 outlook did not provide the upside surprise investors expected, and post-print coverage focused on AI or growth execution concerns.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q2 earnings release and Q3 2026 guidance issued on August 5
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
3
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.1
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.9
Sentiment
93
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.6
Δ21d
-0.5
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 2.7 / Value 53.4 / Sentiment 92.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$380.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$250.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$104.4B
Beta
2.50
Shares Out
334.65M
P/E (TTM)
78.1
P/S (TTM)
38.74
P/FCF (TTM)
62.86
Rev YoY
+52.8%
EPS YoY
+80.3%
Gross Margin
+87.7%
Op Margin
+77.7%
Net Debt
$1.06B
Current Ratio
4.30
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data