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APEI

American Public EducationC
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 5.5% to $171.7 million, adjusted EBITDA rose 36.8% to $20.7 million, and management raised FY2026 guidance. Continued Health+ enrollment growth and Military+ registrations could support the positive directional prior.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
An APUS officer reported an open-market sale of 8,800 shares on August 12; the filing does not establish a view on future operating results. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-13]
Momentum
82
Value
60
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $45.00 · Bull $55.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-09-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $63.71
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d +10.6
Value60 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment44 · Δ7d +1.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • An APUS officer reported an open-market sale of 8,800 shares on August 12; the filing does not establish a view on future operating results. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-13]
  • • Enrollment growth, tuition increases, the Orlando campus, and the completed institutional combination may not translate into sustained margins. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
  • • The Q3 outlook implies adjusted EBITDA below the $20.7 million reported a year earlier, while Q2 operating cash flow fell to $12.1 million from $14.8 million.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-15

Q3 enrollment and profitability test

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
82
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.6
Δ21d
+35.5
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-2.2
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
-20.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 81.7 / Value 60.2 / Sentiment 44.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$892.57M
Beta
1.72
Shares Out
18.3M
P/E (TTM)
30.1
P/S (TTM)
1.05
P/FCF (TTM)
12.36
Rev YoY
+5.5%
EPS YoY
-2986.7%
Gross Margin
+53.4%
Op Margin
+10.2%
Net Debt
-$13.54M
Current Ratio
3.25
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data