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APA

APAA
Nasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Second-quarter adjusted production exceeded guidance, free cash flow was $738 million, and APA raised its U.S. oil and cost-savings targets.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Commodity-price sensitivity could reduce realized revenue and free cash flow.
Momentum
89
Value
70
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
8 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $55.00 · Bull $65.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2026-10-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $50.07
Why
Momentum89 · Δ7d +0.2
Value70 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -1.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Commodity-price sensitivity could reduce realized revenue and free cash flow.
  • • Execution risk remains on 123,000-barrel-per-day U.S. oil guidance and the $500 million year-end cost-savings run-rate target. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
  • • The October supplement is not a complete earnings report.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05

Third-quarter results and November 5 call

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
89
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-1.8
Value
70
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
-14.5
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 89.0 / Value 70.3 / Sentiment 57.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$18.18B
Beta
0.74
Shares Out
350.35M
P/E (TTM)
5.9
P/S (TTM)
0.90
P/FCF (TTM)
1.98
Rev YoY
+9.0%
EPS YoY
+26.3%
Gross Margin
+48.0%
Op Margin
+41.3%
Net Debt
$4.29B
Current Ratio
0.95
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data