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APA

APAA
Nasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Operational execution, higher U.S. oil guidance, improving cost efficiency, strong free cash flow, and debt reduction support a moderately positive medium-term setup.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Analyst revision breadth, options data, short interest, employee sentiment, and social coverage were unavailable.
Momentum
84
Value
72
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $46.00 · Bull $49.50 · Bear $37.50Analysis 2026-09-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $44.96
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d -4.6
Value72 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +4.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst revision breadth, options data, short interest, employee sentiment, and social coverage were unavailable.
  • • Commodity-price volatility can pressure cash flow and valuation.
  • • The thesis remains sensitive to oil and gas prices, Egypt and Waha realizations, hedging coverage, and execution on Alaska and Uruguay exploration initiatives.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Q2 execution beat and raised U.S. oil guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
84
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-4.6
Δ21d
-3.5
Value
72
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+2.1
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.8
Δ21d
+4.0
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 84.3 / Value 72.2 / Sentiment 69.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$49.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$37.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$14.57B
Beta
0.74
Shares Out
350.35M
P/E (TTM)
5.9
P/S (TTM)
0.90
P/FCF (TTM)
1.98
Rev YoY
+9.0%
EPS YoY
+26.3%
Gross Margin
+48.0%
Op Margin
+41.3%
Net Debt
$4.29B
Current Ratio
0.95
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data