B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AOSL
Alpha and Omega SemiconductorCNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that AOS may have reached a cyclical near-term bottom while higher-value AI/server and premium-smartphone content starts to lift mix. Management pointed to Advanced Computing strength, robust demand from a Tier One U.S.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Manufacturing and product announcements carry execution risk because IPM5 volume production and new AI-power products still require design-win, customer-ramp, and utilization follow-through to matter financially. [#PR-2026-04-14-IPM5] [#PR-2026-04-30-SMARTCLAMP]
Momentum
8
Value
42
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $38.00 · Bull $46.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $46.40
Why
Momentum8 · Δ7d -2.2
Value42 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment77 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Manufacturing and product announcements carry execution risk because IPM5 volume production and new AI-power products still require design-win, customer-ramp, and utilization follow-through to matter financially. [#PR-2026-04-14-IPM5] [#PR-2026-04-30-SMARTCLAMP]
- • Operating cash flow remained negative in the March quarter, while targeted R&D spending is rising, limiting room for execution misses before the growth thesis proves out. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
- • The bear case is that the quarter still showed weak profitability and cash generation: gross margin remained around 22%, losses widened year over year, operating cash flow stayed negative, and management explicitly said second-half calendar 2026 visibility is limited because of memory pricing and broader end-market uncertainty.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
June-quarter guide now has to validate management's 'bottomed' thesis
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
8
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
-4.1
Value
42
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-6.2
Sentiment
77
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 7.8 / Value 41.9 / Sentiment 77.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$929.91M
Beta
2.01
Shares Out
29.93M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-22.0
P/S (TTM)
0.92
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-15.39
Rev YoY
-3.5%
EPS YoY
-83.2%
Gross Margin
+22.3%
Op Margin
-6.4%
Net Debt
-$153.44M
Current Ratio
3.44
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data