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Sphere 3DF
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The upside case is mostly event-driven: if the Cathedra merger clears and the refreshed mining fleet plus Iowa/North Campbell footprint lower costs enough to stabilize operations, the stock could rerate from distressed micro-cap levels [#8-K-2026-03-11] [#PR-2026-03-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
ATM issuance and other equity-linked financing can dilute holders further.
Momentum
99
Value
35
Sentiment
11
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.35 · Bull $2.40 · Bear $0.60Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $3.01
Why
Momentum99 · Δ7d -
Value35 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment11 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • ATM issuance and other equity-linked financing can dilute holders further.
  • • Going-concern and funding risk remain explicit in the 2025 10-K.
  • • The bear case is that standalone economics remain weak, the going-concern warning turns into more equity issuance, and the Cathedra deal either slips past key approvals or closes without solving cash-burn pressure [#10-K-2026-03-27] [#8-K-2026-03-11].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-15

May 15, 2026 special meeting is the next merger checkpoint

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
99
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
11
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 99.2 / Value 35.1 / Sentiment 10.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.35
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$18.28M
Beta
3.77
Shares Out
8.7M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.3
P/S (TTM)
1.09
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.47
Rev YoY
-18.8%
EPS YoY
-545.2%
Gross Margin
-44.3%
Op Margin
-138.5%
Net Debt
-$6.97M
Current Ratio
1.03
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data