B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ANRO
Alto NeuroscienceDNYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish view is that the March financing and roughly $275 million pro forma cash position buy enough runway to let ALTO-207, ALTO-300, and ALTO-100 reset sentiment after the ALTO-101 setback, with ALTO-207 now the lead value driver and potentially the clearest rerating path [#8-K-2026-04-01] [#10-K-2026-03-16].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.7.
What can break
ALTO-101 failed to hit statistical significance on primary EEG and cognitive endpoints, reducing pipeline breadth.
Momentum
95
Value
41
Sentiment
37
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $24.00 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-04-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $38.38
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d +0.6
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment37 · Δ7d +11.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • ALTO-101 failed to hit statistical significance on primary EEG and cognitive endpoints, reducing pipeline breadth.
- • Clinical timelines are management-guided and can slip, which would pressure a small-cap biotech with limited commercial fallback.
- • The bearish view is that the April 1 ALTO-101 miss narrows the thesis to a handful of still-unproven programs, increases dependence on ALTO-207 execution, and leaves the stock vulnerable to any enrollment, start-up, or data slippage in 2026 [#8-K-2026-04-01].
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
ALTO-207 Phase 2b trial initiation in TRD
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
95
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+2.5
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
37
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.7
Δ21d
+8.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 95.0 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 36.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.32B
Beta
-
Shares Out
39.24M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-15.3
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-16.56
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
-1.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$152.53M
Current Ratio
14.85
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data