B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AMBA
AmbarellaDNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Revenue growth, record Edge AI revenue, CV75/CV72 ramping, and commercial-vehicle momentum support a constructive operating trajectory. The Q3 revenue guide implies continued sequential growth.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.4.
What can break
CEO, CFO, and other officers reported open-market share sales in June and July 2026; this is a sentiment risk but not direct evidence of weaker operations. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-02] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-18]
Momentum
46
Value
40
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $68.00 · Bull $82.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $91.33
Why
Momentum46 · Δ7d +17.2
Value40 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -7.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CEO, CFO, and other officers reported open-market share sales in June and July 2026; this is a sentiment risk but not direct evidence of weaker operations. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-02] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-18]
- • GAAP gross margin fell to 57.7% from 58.9% year over year, while non-GAAP gross margin fell to 59.3% from 60.5%. [#SEC-8K-2026-09-03]
- • Gross margins declined year over year, GAAP losses continue, and Q3 margin guidance remains below prior-year levels.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-30
Q3 FY2027 revenue guide supports near-term sentiment
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
46
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+17.2
Δ21d
+19.0
Value
40
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.4
Δ21d
-5.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 46.2 / Value 40.2 / Sentiment 57.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.94B
Beta
1.96
Shares Out
44.14M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-37.4
P/S (TTM)
8.88
P/FCF (TTM)
51.65
Rev YoY
+16.9%
EPS YoY
-28.0%
Gross Margin
+57.8%
Op Margin
-18.5%
Net Debt
-$299.58M
Current Ratio
2.43
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data