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AMBA

AmbarellaD
Nasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The upside case rests on continued edge-AI growth, automotive and IoT penetration, higher-value 5nm products, and execution of the X7, Macnica, and Capgemini initiatives. Management described these developments as expanding its serviceable-market outlook [#SEC-8K-2026-09-03].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
GAAP losses remain, despite improved non-GAAP profitability.
Momentum
16
Value
40
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $70.00 · Bull $100.00 · Bear $45.00Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $90.20
Why
Momentum16 · Δ7d -56.8
Value40 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -19.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Bearish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -19.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • GAAP losses remain, despite improved non-GAAP profitability.
  • • Gross-margin compression could persist as product mix and pricing evolve.
  • • The Q2 result was only a modest beat versus available market consensus, Q3 guidance was broadly in line, gross margin compressed year over year, and the post-release share-price reaction was negative.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-03

Mixed Q2 FY2027 earnings follow-up

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
16
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-56.8
Δ21d
-67.9
Value
40
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.2
Δ21d
-2.0
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 15.8 / Value 40.5 / Sentiment 59.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
40%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.45B
Beta
1.96
Shares Out
43.87M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-44.2
P/S (TTM)
8.88
P/FCF (TTM)
51.65
Rev YoY
+16.9%
EPS YoY
-28.0%
Gross Margin
+57.8%
Op Margin
-18.5%
Net Debt
-$299.58M
Current Ratio
2.43
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data