B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ALRM
Alarm.comCNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that Q1 showed resilient double-digit SaaS growth, better adjusted profitability, stronger operating cash flow, and a modest full-year guide raise, which supports the prior cautious-positive thesis rather than a reset lower.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.6.
What can break
Hardware and other revenue margin remains exposed to tariffs and supplier price increases, which the 10-Q said lifted hardware costs in Q1. [#10-Q-2026-05-07]
Momentum
58
Value
61
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $52.00 · Bull $58.00 · Bear $41.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $63.00
Why
Momentum58 · Δ7d +3.2
Value61 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +4.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Hardware and other revenue margin remains exposed to tariffs and supplier price increases, which the 10-Q said lifted hardware costs in Q1. [#10-Q-2026-05-07]
- • Macroeconomic uncertainty, consumer sentiment swings, and broader supply-chain disruption remain explicit company risk factors that can affect demand and hardware mix. [#10-Q-2026-05-07]
- • The bear case is that the guide raise was modest, GAAP net income declined year over year, and the recent product/news flow still leans more on launches than on hard customer-adoption disclosures, so the setup remains monitoring-oriented rather than a high-conviction rerating.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q1 beat-and-raise keeps the post-earnings setup constructive but still modest
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
58
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.2
Δ21d
-27.7
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
55
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.6
Δ21d
+1.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 58.3 / Value 61.1 / Sentiment 54.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.7B
Beta
0.79
Shares Out
49.09M
P/E (TTM)
21.8
P/S (TTM)
2.59
P/FCF (TTM)
16.78
Rev YoY
+9.2%
EPS YoY
-23.4%
Gross Margin
+62.6%
Op Margin
+13.0%
Net Debt
$102.96M
Current Ratio
4.96
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data