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ALLY

Ally FinancialC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Second-quarter auto originations of $13.3 billion, improving reported auto charge-offs, and $144 billion of retail deposits offer a path to durable earnings if underwriting and funding economics hold. This remains a conditional interpretation, not confirmed third-quarter performance.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
What can break
A renewed rise in retail auto charge-offs could weaken earnings and constrain buybacks. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
Momentum
30
Value
55
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $39.00 · Bull $48.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $47.28
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d +9.6
Value55 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -5.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A renewed rise in retail auto charge-offs could weaken earnings and constrain buybacks. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
  • • Deposit pricing or the cost of wholesale debt could offset lending yields; the September notes carry a 5.525% fixed-to-floating coupon. [#8-K-2026-09-16]
  • • Auto-credit losses could reverse, while deposit competition and the new senior-debt coupon pressure margins.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-20

October 20 third-quarter results test the credit and margin trajectory

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
30
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.6
Δ21d
+7.3
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.9
Δ21d
-12.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 29.9 / Value 55.4 / Sentiment 54.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$11.88B
Beta
1.17
Shares Out
304.2M
P/E (TTM)
54.2
P/S (TTM)
1.65
P/FCF (TTM)
24.51
Rev YoY
+4.8%
EPS YoY
+13.8%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+11.3%
Net Debt
$19.71B
Current Ratio
0.98
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data