B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$190.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ALGN
AlignCNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 Clear Aligner revenue grew 8.2% and case volume grew 7.4% year over year. Sustained case growth, scanner placements feeding future treatments, and margin expansion could support a rerating.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
What can break
Q3 guidance anticipates lower sequential revenue and Clear Aligner selling prices; foreign exchange, demand and restructuring charges add execution risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Momentum
22
Value
65
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $160.00 · Bull $190.00 · Bear $105.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $191.38
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d +0.1
Value65 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment47 · Δ7d -4.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Q3 guidance anticipates lower sequential revenue and Clear Aligner selling prices; foreign exchange, demand and restructuring charges add execution risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
- • Scanner mix: Q2 Systems and Services revenue declined 10.8% year over year; management expects a further 6%–8% full-year decline. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
- • Systems and Services revenue fell 10.8% year over year in Q2.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28 · AMC
Q3 revenue and aligner-volume test
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
22
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+1.6
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
47
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.1
Δ21d
-17.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 22.1 / Value 64.9 / Sentiment 46.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$160.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$10.98B
Beta
1.84
Shares Out
71.04M
P/E (TTM)
31.0
P/S (TTM)
2.88
P/FCF (TTM)
20.28
Rev YoY
+4.3%
EPS YoY
-11.8%
Gross Margin
+70.7%
Op Margin
+18.4%
Net Debt
-$980.46M
Current Ratio
1.40
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data