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ALGN

AlignA
Nasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The clean bull read is that Align meets or beats the Q1 setup and keeps 2026 growth and margin targets intact, validating that Q4 2025 was the start of a steadier recovery rather than a one-quarter improvement.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.2.
What can break
As of 2026-04-29 before the scheduled after-close release, the actual Q1 2026 results and guidance update were still unavailable, creating an important evidence gap for a T+1 follow-up.
Momentum
12
Value
63
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $174.00 · Bull $205.00 · Bear $150.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $209.57
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d -1.6
Value63 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment83 · Δ7d +3.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • As of 2026-04-29 before the scheduled after-close release, the actual Q1 2026 results and guidance update were still unavailable, creating an important evidence gap for a T+1 follow-up.
  • • Because no trustworthy post-print analyst target changes or estimate revisions were available yet, forward conviction should remain lower until the company release and early revision cycle are visible.
  • • The bear read is that Q1 reveals weaker case starts, softer Systems and Services seasonality, or margin slippage that forces a 2026 reset; with the deterministic prior still negative and no post-print analyst revision data yet, that risk cannot be dismissed.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-29

Q1 2026 earnings and guidance check arrive after market close on April 29

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
12
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.6
Δ21d
-23.9
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.2
Δ21d
+17.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 12.2 / Value 63.4 / Sentiment 83.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$174.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$12.16B
Beta
1.84
Shares Out
71.04M
P/E (TTM)
31.0
P/S (TTM)
2.88
P/FCF (TTM)
20.28
Rev YoY
+4.3%
EPS YoY
-11.8%
Gross Margin
+70.7%
Op Margin
+18.4%
Net Debt
-$980.46M
Current Ratio
1.40
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data