B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$250.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ALAB
Astera LabsDNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case strengthened after the May 5, 2026 print: record Q1 revenue, a strong Q2 guide, and product commentary showing shipping Scorpio X-Series and broader PCIe 6 portfolio momentum [#8-K-2026-05-05]. Post-earnings coverage indicates target increases from firms including Needham, RBC, BofA, Susquehanna, and Barclays during May 6-7, 2026, which supports a constructive revision cycle.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
At roughly a $36.7 billion market cap, valuation leaves less room for execution slippage if second-half shipments or 2027 volume ramps arrive later than investors expect.
Momentum
83
Value
46
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $210.00 · Bull $250.00 · Bear $155.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $420.70
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d -8.2
Value46 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment44 · Δ7d +9.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • At roughly a $36.7 billion market cap, valuation leaves less room for execution slippage if second-half shipments or 2027 volume ramps arrive later than investors expect.
- • Guidance calls for gross margin around 73% in Q2 versus 76.4% non-GAAP in Q1, so mix and ramp execution could pressure the stock if growth comes with lower incremental profitability [#8-K-2026-05-05].
- • The bear case is that ALAB remains a high-expectations AI infrastructure name where a lot of operational success is already reflected in sentiment.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-15
Post-earnings estimate and target revision cycle after Q1 beat-and-raise
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.2
Δ21d
-10.8
Value
46
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.7
Δ21d
+22.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 82.7 / Value 46.2 / Sentiment 43.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$210.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$44.61B
Beta
-
Shares Out
173.49M
P/E (TTM)
148.5
P/S (TTM)
39.04
P/FCF (TTM)
123.02
Rev YoY
+104.5%
EPS YoY
+190.3%
Gross Margin
+75.1%
Op Margin
+22.8%
Net Debt
-$1.16B
Current Ratio
10.05
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data