B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$330.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AIT
Applied IndustrialCNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that AIT delivered a credible beat/raise quarter with record EBITDA, strengthening organic growth across both segments, favorable April sales/order commentary, and a fresh buyback, which together support a higher-quality industrial distributor multiple if Q4 confirms the momentum. [#8-K-2026-04-28]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.0.
What can break
LIFO expense was higher year over year, showing margin sensitivity to inventory-cost inflation and mix. [#8-K-2026-04-28]
Momentum
61
Value
54
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $309.00 · Bull $330.00 · Bear $280.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $400.00
Why
Momentum61 · Δ7d -10.9
Value54 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +3.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • LIFO expense was higher year over year, showing margin sensitivity to inventory-cost inflation and mix. [#8-K-2026-04-28]
- • Management said Q4 guidance incorporates macro uncertainty tied to recent geopolitical events, ongoing trade-policy dynamics, broader inflationary headwinds, and growth investments. [#8-K-2026-04-28]
- • The bear case is that management explicitly kept geopolitical, trade-policy, and inflation headwinds in the Q4 outlook, and the stock already sits near the packet's median analyst target of about $309, leaving limited room for upside if the Q3 strength proves more cyclical than durable.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Q3 print beat/raise with stronger organic growth
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
61
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.9
Δ21d
-11.0
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.0
Δ21d
+11.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 60.6 / Value 54.3 / Sentiment 56.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$309.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$280.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$13.17B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
36.7M
P/E (TTM)
25.3
P/S (TTM)
2.13
P/FCF (TTM)
25.57
Rev YoY
+10.4%
EPS YoY
+13.2%
Gross Margin
+29.0%
Op Margin
+11.7%
Net Debt
$356.31M
Current Ratio
2.58
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data