RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

AIR

AARF
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Margin expansion from higher‑value services and defense contract wins, plus buybacks, could re-rate the multiple toward the mid‑50s (USD).
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.
What can break
Contract timing and award losses
Momentum
14
Value
55
Sentiment
2
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $47.00 · Bull $56.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2025-11-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-11-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $157.67
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d +2.2
Value55 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment2 · Δ7d +2.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Contract timing and award losses
  • • Currency and macroeconomic headwinds
  • • A cyclical drop in commercial flight hours, contract delays, or cost inflation would compress revenue and margins, pushing shares into the high‑30s.

Catalyst clock

2025-11-14

Quarterly earnings release

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
14
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
-1.4
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
2
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
+2.5
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 14.1 / Value 55.3 / Sentiment 2.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-11-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.83B
Beta
1.23
Shares Out
40.19M
P/E (TTM)
116.4
P/S (TTM)
1.22
P/FCF (TTM)
2105.36
Rev YoY
+23.0%
EPS YoY
+34.0%
Gross Margin
+18.8%
Op Margin
+8.4%
Net Debt
$904.2M
Current Ratio
2.84
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data