B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
AIR
AARFNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Margin expansion from higher‑value services and defense contract wins, plus buybacks, could re-rate the multiple toward the mid‑50s (USD).
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Contract timing and award losses
Momentum
61
Value
51
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $47.00 · Bull $56.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2025-11-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-11-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $149.50
Why
Momentum61 · Δ7d -25.2
Value51 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Contract timing and award losses
- • Currency and macroeconomic headwinds
- • A cyclical drop in commercial flight hours, contract delays, or cost inflation would compress revenue and margins, pushing shares into the high‑30s.
Catalyst clock
2025-11-14
Quarterly earnings release
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
61
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-25.2
Δ21d
-19.4
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 61.3 / Value 51.2 / Sentiment 0.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-11-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-11-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.19B
Beta
1.23
Shares Out
40.26M
P/E (TTM)
116.4
P/S (TTM)
1.22
P/FCF (TTM)
2105.36
Rev YoY
+23.0%
EPS YoY
+34.0%
Gross Margin
+18.8%
Op Margin
+8.4%
Net Debt
$904.2M
Current Ratio
2.84
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data