B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AHCO
AdaptHealthBNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Strong organic growth, full-scale capitated contracts, portfolio simplification, digital engagement, and restructuring savings could support a cleaner core earnings profile. The $9.8571 median target in the packet implies upside, but the analyst target count is unavailable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.7.
What can break
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced from $680 million-$730 million to $490 million-$520 million, with specific pressure from the West Coast capitated contract and manufacturer pricing. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Momentum
2
Value
69
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6.20 · Bull $8.50 · Bear $4.20Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.14
Why
Momentum2 · Δ7d +0.2
Value69 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment74 · Δ7d -8.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced from $680 million-$730 million to $490 million-$520 million, with specific pressure from the West Coast capitated contract and manufacturer pricing. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
- • Post-earnings analyst revisions and a clean Aug. 4 market-reaction attribution are unavailable in the packet; low coverage limits confidence in forward estimates.
- • The earnings reset exposed material margin and cash-flow pressure: FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance fell to $490 million-$520 million, free-cash-flow guidance to $80 million-$120 million, and Q2 included a $144.2 million goodwill write-down.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-05
Diabetes divestiture and debt actions may simplify the portfolio
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
2
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.1
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.7
Δ21d
-6.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 1.8 / Value 69.1 / Sentiment 73.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$6.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$792.16M
Beta
1.73
Shares Out
136.34M
P/E (TTM)
17.6
P/S (TTM)
0.41
P/FCF (TTM)
6.21
Rev YoY
+12.7%
EPS YoY
-1041.5%
Gross Margin
+15.9%
Op Margin
+4.5%
Net Debt
$1.8B
Current Ratio
1.12
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data