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AGCO

AGCOC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 adjusted EPS increased year over year, and management reported share gains in high-horsepower North America plus continued precision-agriculture progress. Inventory reduction and cost actions could support earnings resilience if demand stabilizes.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.1.
What can break
Dealer inventory and production reductions could weigh on near-term revenue and operating leverage.
Momentum
97
Value
67
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $103.00 · Bull $123.00 · Bear $88.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $123.14
Why
Momentum97 · Δ7d +68.3
Value67 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment43 · Δ7d +2.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Dealer inventory and production reductions could weigh on near-term revenue and operating leverage.
  • • Europe and Latin America remain weak, while financing costs and tighter credit may restrain larger-equipment demand.
  • • The earnings follow-up is fundamentally negative: management cited softer equipment demand, delayed purchases, tariff and input-cost pressure, weak Europe and Latin America conditions, and limited visibility into recovery.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-30

Post-earnings guidance reset remains negative

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
97
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+68.3
Δ21d
+86.5
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.0
Sentiment
43
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.1
Δ21d
-28.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 97.5 / Value 66.5 / Sentiment 42.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$123.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$103.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.99B
Beta
1.19
Shares Out
70.03M
P/E (TTM)
21.2
P/S (TTM)
0.79
P/FCF (TTM)
11.98
Rev YoY
-1.0%
EPS YoY
-74.3%
Gross Margin
+24.6%
Op Margin
+6.6%
Net Debt
$1.76B
Current Ratio
1.32
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data