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AGCO

AGCOD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 adjusted EPS increased year over year, and management reported share gains in high-horsepower North America plus continued precision-agriculture progress. Inventory reduction and cost actions could support earnings resilience if demand stabilizes.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Dealer inventory and production reductions could weigh on near-term revenue and operating leverage.
Momentum
95
Value
67
Sentiment
40
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $103.00 · Bull $123.00 · Bear $88.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $123.14
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d +55.4
Value67 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment40 · Δ7d +0.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Dealer inventory and production reductions could weigh on near-term revenue and operating leverage.
  • • Europe and Latin America remain weak, while financing costs and tighter credit may restrain larger-equipment demand.
  • • The earnings follow-up is fundamentally negative: management cited softer equipment demand, delayed purchases, tariff and input-cost pressure, weak Europe and Latin America conditions, and limited visibility into recovery.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-30

Post-earnings guidance reset remains negative

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
95
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+55.4
Δ21d
+84.5
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.0
Sentiment
40
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-28.1
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 95.3 / Value 66.5 / Sentiment 39.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$123.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$103.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.99B
Beta
1.19
Shares Out
70.03M
P/E (TTM)
21.2
P/S (TTM)
0.79
P/FCF (TTM)
11.98
Rev YoY
-1.0%
EPS YoY
-74.3%
Gross Margin
+24.6%
Op Margin
+6.6%
Net Debt
$1.76B
Current Ratio
1.32
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data