B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AEVA
AevaDNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull read is that record Q1 revenue, $31.4M of unsatisfied performance obligations, and milestone wins across Daimler, passenger OEM, Nikon, and CityOS show AEVA is moving from development-only narrative toward broader commercial traction [#10-Q-2026-05-08] [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.4.
What can break
Automotive and infrastructure wins still carry customer adoption, production timing, and scale-up risk; Aeva's own releases caution that OEM and project selections may not convert as anticipated [#IR-2026-02-26] [#IR-2026-03-31].
Momentum
12
Value
34
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.00 · Bull $20.00 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.00
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d -29.5
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -5.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Automotive and infrastructure wins still carry customer adoption, production timing, and scale-up risk; Aeva's own releases caution that OEM and project selections may not convert as anticipated [#IR-2026-02-26] [#IR-2026-03-31].
- • Q1 GAAP operating loss was $35.1M and operating cash burn was $25.8M, so AEVA still depends on external capital access despite management saying liquidity is sufficient for at least 12 months [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
- • The bear read is that AEVA remains highly loss-making, revenue is concentrated, and the checked post-print record did not show fresh analyst target revisions or a reiterated Q1 guidance upgrade, so the market still needs proof that milestones become durable volume rather than episodic engineering revenue [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-20
Post-earnings digestion after record Q1 revenue and milestone deliveries
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
12
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-29.5
Δ21d
-74.3
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
48
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.4
Δ21d
+28.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 11.6 / Value 34.3 / Sentiment 48.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.66B
Beta
2.09
Shares Out
69.71M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-9.3
P/S (TTM)
51.90
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-12.64
Rev YoY
+11.3%
EPS YoY
-64.8%
Gross Margin
+26.3%
Op Margin
-610.9%
Net Debt
-$19.51M
Current Ratio
7.85
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data