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AES

AESC
NYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
A confirmed acquisition or strategic transaction at a premium, or clear evidence of accelerating asset sales/refinancings, pushes re-rating; AES benefits from premium takeout or positive repricing of execution risk.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Execution risk on asset sales or carve-outs disclosed in exhibits
Momentum
63
Value
57
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.50 · Bull $18.00 · Bear $11.00Analysis 2026-03-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.00
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d -4.5
Value57 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -0.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution risk on asset sales or carve-outs disclosed in exhibits
  • • Refinancing or covenant stress tied to debt maturities
  • • No transaction, weaker-than-expected capital-allocation disclosures, or adverse covenant/refinancing headlines magnify downside given modest current valuation and execution uncertainty.

Catalyst clock

2026-03-19

SEC 8-K (exhibits) filed — monitoring disclosed exhibits for material agreements

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
63
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-4.5
Δ21d
-7.8
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-7.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 62.9 / Value 56.6 / Sentiment 51.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$10.7B
Beta
0.98
Shares Out
713.44M
P/E (TTM)
9.0
P/S (TTM)
0.87
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.82
Rev YoY
+19.9%
EPS YoY
-503.9%
Gross Margin
+20.3%
Op Margin
+18.7%
Net Debt
$28.7B
Current Ratio
0.75
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data