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AERO

Grupo Aeromexico SA.B de C.V UnspB
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Resilient international demand, late-month domestic recovery, encouraging bookings, and disciplined capacity deployment could improve second-half operating performance.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.3.
What can break
Demand and capacity contracted year over year in July, while load factor declined.
Momentum
30
Value
73
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.00 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $12.00Analysis 2026-08-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $26.74
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d +6.5
Value73 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -2.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Demand and capacity contracted year over year in July, while load factor declined.
  • • No analyst revisions, consensus surprise data, or post-release market-reaction evidence is available.
  • • July demand and capacity both declined year over year, load factor softened, financial conversion is unverified, insider selling adds sentiment pressure, and the deterministic prior remains negative with very high uncertainty.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-22

Chief Commercial Officer insider selling adds overhang

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
30
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.5
Δ21d
+20.7
Value
73
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+11.0
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
-4.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 29.6 / Value 72.6 / Sentiment 63.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-10. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.29B
Beta
-
Shares Out
145.9M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
6.4
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
3.99
Rev YoY
+10.9%
EPS YoY
-183.4%
Gross Margin
+20.4%
Op Margin
+12.5%
Net Debt
$3.03B
Current Ratio
0.62
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data