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AERO

Grupo Aeromexico SA.B de C.V UnspA
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
International demand and pricing supported 13.6% Q3 revenue growth, while management guides to 14%–16% Q4 revenue growth. Recovery depends on sustaining pricing and improving utilization despite fuel pressure.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.
What can break
Adjusted net debt to EBITDAR rose to 2.1x from 1.8x at year-end; expansion of Mexico–U.S. service remains subject to applicable regulatory requirements. Q3 filing DOT release
Momentum
65
Value
72
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.00 · Bull $20.00 · Bear $11.50Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.16
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d -6.9
Value72 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +6.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted net debt to EBITDAR rose to 2.1x from 1.8x at year-end; expansion of Mexico–U.S. service remains subject to applicable regulatory requirements. Q3 filing DOT release
  • • Q3 fuel expense rose 57.6% year over year; adjusted EBITDAR fell 11.9% despite record revenue. Q3 filing
  • • Q3 adjusted EBITDAR margin fell seven percentage points year over year, the July Q3 margin target was missed, and Q4 margin guidance was cut sharply.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-19

Third-quarter margin miss resets the earnings thesis

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
65
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-6.9
Δ21d
-1.5
Value
72
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
66
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.7
Δ21d
-1.2
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 65.1 / Value 72.4 / Sentiment 65.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.21B
Beta
-
Shares Out
136.42M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
6.7
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
4.12
Rev YoY
+10.9%
EPS YoY
-183.4%
Gross Margin
+20.4%
Op Margin
+12.5%
Net Debt
$3.03B
Current Ratio
0.62
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data