B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
ADPT
Adaptive BiotechnologiesFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
If MRD commercial demand accelerates, reimbursement outcomes improve, and reported results beat cautious expectations, multiple expansion plus revenue growth could lift shares toward and above $22 within 12 months.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.
What can break
Competition and pricing pressure in diagnostics
Momentum
82
Value
41
Sentiment
25
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.00 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-01-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $25.07
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d -0.1
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment25 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Competition and pricing pressure in diagnostics
- • Quarterly results below guidance leading to dilution
- • If MRD adoption is slower than modeled, reimbursement and payer pushback persist, or the company issues dilutive financing after disappointing results, shares could revisit the single-digit range (~$8).
Catalyst clock
2026-02-28
Final Q4 & Full Year 2025 Results and Conference Call
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
82
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-11.1
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
25
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
+3.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 82.1 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 25.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.95B
Beta
2.18
Shares Out
159.6M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-63.2
P/S (TTM)
9.77
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-164.26
Rev YoY
+21.5%
EPS YoY
+47.8%
Gross Margin
+72.7%
Op Margin
-11.8%
Net Debt
-$16.62M
Current Ratio
4.79
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data