B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$305.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ADP
Automatic Data ProcessingDNasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q4 adjusted EPS rose 17%, revenue rose 7%, Employer Services bookings rose 6%, and management reported strong retention and AI-driven productivity initiatives. The FY2027 bookings, margin, and client-funds outlook provides a tangible execution path [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Employer Services retention is guided down 10-30 basis points and U.S. pays per control growth is guided to 0%-1% [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Momentum
83
Value
47
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
7 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $288.36 · Bull $305.00 · Bear $240.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $288.07
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +4.2
Value47 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment47 · Δ7d -6.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 7 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Employer Services retention is guided down 10-30 basis points and U.S. pays per control growth is guided to 0%-1% [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
- • FY2027 revenue growth guidance of 5%-6% is below FY2026's 7% [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
- • The FY2027 revenue-growth outlook slows to 5%-6%, Employer Services retention is guided lower, PEO margins weakened, and pays-per-control growth is guided to 0%-1%.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28 · BMO
FY2027 Employer Services bookings and retention outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
+14.5
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
47
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.9
Δ21d
-28.6
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 82.5 / Value 46.9 / Sentiment 47.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$288.36
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$240.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$120.52B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
396.25M
P/E (TTM)
25.4
P/S (TTM)
4.98
P/FCF (TTM)
59.25
Rev YoY
+6.8%
EPS YoY
+9.6%
Gross Margin
+50.7%
Op Margin
+26.4%
Net Debt
$1.28B
Current Ratio
1.05
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data