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ADP

Automatic Data ProcessingB
Nasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q4 adjusted EPS rose 17%, revenue rose 7%, Employer Services bookings rose 6%, and management reported strong retention and AI-driven productivity initiatives. The FY2027 bookings, margin, and client-funds outlook provides a tangible execution path [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Employer Services retention is guided down 10-30 basis points and U.S. pays per control growth is guided to 0%-1% [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Momentum
74
Value
49
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $288.36 · Bull $305.00 · Bear $240.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $289.36
Why
Momentum74 · Δ7d -12.0
Value49 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +9.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Employer Services retention is guided down 10-30 basis points and U.S. pays per control growth is guided to 0%-1% [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
  • • FY2027 revenue growth guidance of 5%-6% is below FY2026's 7% [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
  • • The FY2027 revenue-growth outlook slows to 5%-6%, Employer Services retention is guided lower, PEO margins weakened, and pays-per-control growth is guided to 0%-1%.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-01

FY2027 Employer Services bookings and retention outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
74
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.0
Δ21d
-13.3
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.3
Δ21d
-2.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 74.4 / Value 49.0 / Sentiment 71.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$305.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$288.36
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$240.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$105.7B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
397.26M
P/E (TTM)
25.4
P/S (TTM)
4.98
P/FCF (TTM)
59.25
Rev YoY
+6.8%
EPS YoY
+9.6%
Gross Margin
+50.7%
Op Margin
+26.4%
Net Debt
$1.28B
Current Ratio
1.05
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data