B+
Bull case
22%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ADEA
AdeiaCNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The positive case is that Adeia has visible primary-source evidence of new licensing activity and non-recurring monetization that can partly offset Pay-TV royalty declines, with Q1 revenue growth showing the business can still convert IP assets into cash-generating agreements [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.7.
What can break
Adeia still carries $398.6 million of term debt outstanding with a 7.3% interest rate and a June 8, 2028 maturity on the Term Loan B [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Momentum
26
Value
62
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.00 · Bull $32.00 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $43.00
Why
Momentum26 · Δ7d +9.0
Value62 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -7.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adeia still carries $398.6 million of term debt outstanding with a 7.3% interest rate and a June 8, 2028 maturity on the Term Loan B [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
- • Customer concentration remains meaningful: two customers each represented at least 10% of Q1 revenue, and one customer represented 68% of aggregate accounts receivable at March 31, 2026 [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
- • The main bear point is that Q1's growth leaned heavily on non-recurring deal revenue while recurring revenue declined because of lower Pay-TV royalties, so forward revenue still depends on uneven renewals, litigation outcomes and new-license timing rather than a clean subscription-style ramp [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Catalyst clock
2026-08-15
Q1 growth was strong, but the mix still shows lumpy deal dependence
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
26
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.0
Δ21d
-12.7
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+3.3
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.7
Δ21d
+5.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 26.2 / Value 61.5 / Sentiment 62.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
53%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.27B
Beta
2.33
Shares Out
110.28M
P/E (TTM)
28.4
P/S (TTM)
5.32
P/FCF (TTM)
12.32
Rev YoY
+12.1%
EPS YoY
+1.8%
Gross Margin
+86.8%
Op Margin
+46.8%
Net Debt
$291.01M
Current Ratio
3.25
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data