RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

ADEA

AdeiaB
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Q2 agreements and 54% non-Pay-TV recurring-revenue growth support a diversification thesis. Further semiconductor license conversion could substantiate the higher long-term outlook.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
What can break
Adeia reported $392.6 million of term-loan principal outstanding at June 30, making cash generation and debt reduction relevant to valuation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
Momentum
12
Value
66
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $21.00 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $14.50Analysis 2026-10-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $43.00
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d +3.6
Value66 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -17.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adeia reported $392.6 million of term-loan principal outstanding at June 30, making cash generation and debt reduction relevant to valuation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
  • • License signing and revenue recognition can be uneven; Q2 revenue declined sequentially despite new agreements. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
  • • Q2 revenue fell from $104.8 million in Q1 to $96.1 million, and the semiconductor ambition remains uncontracted.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

CEO transition tests licensing execution

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
12
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
-18.1
Value
66
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+3.7
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-17.9
Δ21d
-9.6
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 11.9 / Value 66.2 / Sentiment 56.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.34B
Beta
2.33
Shares Out
110.28M
P/E (TTM)
28.4
P/S (TTM)
5.32
P/FCF (TTM)
12.32
Rev YoY
+12.1%
EPS YoY
+1.8%
Gross Margin
+86.8%
Op Margin
+46.8%
Net Debt
$291.01M
Current Ratio
3.25
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data