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ACGL

Arch Capital GroupB
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary-source Q1 results were strong on operating income, reserve development, catastrophe containment, and aggressive buybacks. Group combined ratio improved to 81.7% from 90.1%, and book value per share rose to $66.19, supporting the case that ACGL is still compounding through the cycle rather than defending a broken book.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Mortgage segment profitability softened year over year, adding another drag if housing-credit conditions worsen.
Momentum
33
Value
60
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $104.00 · Bull $112.00 · Bear $88.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $111.53
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d -3.1
Value60 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +4.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Mortgage segment profitability softened year over year, adding another drag if housing-credit conditions worsen.
  • • Net realized losses and investment-market volatility can create earnings noise even when core underwriting is solid.
  • • The counterpoint is that volume softened across the group, including a deliberate pullback in property catastrophe reinsurance, while the combined ratio excluding catastrophe activity and prior-year development worsened to 82.3% from 81.0%.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-06

Q1 earnings beat is being digested against softer premium and revenue trends

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
33
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
-7.2
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.9
Δ21d
+0.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 33.2 / Value 60.3 / Sentiment 68.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$104.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$33.38B
Beta
0.42
Shares Out
341.23M
P/E (TTM)
8.8
P/S (TTM)
1.81
P/FCF (TTM)
7.82
Rev YoY
-11.5%
EPS YoY
-7.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+25.1%
Net Debt
$818M
Current Ratio
0.50
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data