B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.02
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ACB
Aurora CannabisFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Upside depends on Q1 FY27 results and management commentary showing better-than-feared revenue, margins, cash flow, or guidance; no such evidence is available before the print.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Aurora's company release identifies tariffs, financing access, customer retention, demand, competition, distribution, production yields, and regulatory changes as material uncertainties [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-22].
Momentum
97
Value
41
Sentiment
27
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.83 · Bull $4.02 · Bear $2.20Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.03
Why
Momentum97 · Δ7d +0.2
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment27 · Δ7d -3.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Aurora's company release identifies tariffs, financing access, customer retention, demand, competition, distribution, production yields, and regulatory changes as material uncertainties [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-22].
- • Low coverage, absent SEC and insider context, and a loose peer set limit triangulation.
- • The deterministic prior is neutral-to-negative, with expected returns of -0.49% over 5 days and -1.41% over 20 days, alongside very high uncertainty.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q1 FY27 earnings release and investor call
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
97
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+2.3
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
27
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
+5.7
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 96.6 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 27.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$2.83
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$271.91M
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
65.74M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2.7
P/S (TTM)
0.90
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-6.39
Rev YoY
-8.8%
EPS YoY
-75.8%
Gross Margin
+4.1%
Op Margin
-56.9%
Net Debt
-$100.92M
Current Ratio
5.36
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data