B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$138.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ACA
ArcosaDNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull view is that Arcosa showed real operating leverage: continuing-operations adjusted EBITDA grew 10% on 4% revenue growth, utility structures delivered record backlog, and management raised 2026 continuing-operations guidance after only one quarter, reinforcing the positive directional prior.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Arcosa remains exposed to acquisition/divestiture execution risk as it integrates the Florida aggregates purchase and completes the portfolio simplification around the barge exit [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Momentum
81
Value
53
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $129.00 · Bull $138.00 · Bear $112.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $150.00
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d +3.3
Value53 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment43 · Δ7d -2.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Arcosa remains exposed to acquisition/divestiture execution risk as it integrates the Florida aggregates purchase and completes the portfolio simplification around the barge exit [#8-K-2026-04-30].
- • Backlog and firm orders are supportive but not guaranteed; the company also flags cyclicality, weather, inflation/material costs, tariffs, and customer-demand swings as forward risks [#8-K-2026-04-30][#10-K-2026-02-27].
- • The bear view is that utility structures is carrying the story while Construction Products had weather-related softness and wind towers remain in decline; by May 3, 2026, clear post-print analyst target revisions were not readily available, so the thesis still leans on company commentary more than broad external estimate confirmation.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-30
Barge divestiture simplifies portfolio and improves balance-sheet flexibility
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
81
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
+9.1
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
43
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.9
Δ21d
-7.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 81.3 / Value 52.7 / Sentiment 42.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$129.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$7.32B
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
49.11M
P/E (TTM)
36.0
P/S (TTM)
1.88
P/FCF (TTM)
17.52
Rev YoY
+1.7%
EPS YoY
-152.4%
Gross Margin
+23.0%
Op Margin
+11.2%
Net Debt
$1.37B
Current Ratio
3.12
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data