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ArcosaD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings bull view is that Arcosa showed real operating leverage: continuing-operations adjusted EBITDA grew 10% on 4% revenue growth, utility structures delivered record backlog, and management raised 2026 continuing-operations guidance after only one quarter, reinforcing the positive directional prior.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.4.
What can break
Arcosa remains exposed to acquisition/divestiture execution risk as it integrates the Florida aggregates purchase and completes the portfolio simplification around the barge exit [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Momentum
77
Value
56
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $129.00 · Bull $138.00 · Bear $112.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $147.50
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d +3.7
Value56 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -1.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Arcosa remains exposed to acquisition/divestiture execution risk as it integrates the Florida aggregates purchase and completes the portfolio simplification around the barge exit [#8-K-2026-04-30].
  • • Backlog and firm orders are supportive but not guaranteed; the company also flags cyclicality, weather, inflation/material costs, tariffs, and customer-demand swings as forward risks [#8-K-2026-04-30][#10-K-2026-02-27].
  • • The bear view is that utility structures is carrying the story while Construction Products had weather-related softness and wind towers remain in decline; by May 3, 2026, clear post-print analyst target revisions were not readily available, so the thesis still leans on company commentary more than broad external estimate confirmation.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Barge divestiture simplifies portfolio and improves balance-sheet flexibility

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
77
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
+14.5
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-2.7
Sentiment
49
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
+0.6
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 77.3 / Value 55.5 / Sentiment 48.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$138.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$129.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.12B
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
49.11M
P/E (TTM)
36.0
P/S (TTM)
1.88
P/FCF (TTM)
17.52
Rev YoY
+1.7%
EPS YoY
-152.4%
Gross Margin
+23.0%
Op Margin
+11.2%
Net Debt
$1.37B
Current Ratio
3.12
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data