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ABX

Abacus Global ManagementB
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Investor presentation and successful integration of the Manning Napier minority stake drive distribution expansion and recurring-fee growth; buybacks and improved underwriting lift EPS materially, supporting a re-rating toward higher multiple territory.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.3.
What can break
Integration or regulatory issues from strategic minority investment
Momentum
25
Value
47
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.00 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $7.50Analysis 2026-03-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.31
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d -0.8
Value47 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +2.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Integration or regulatory issues from strategic minority investment
  • • Investor presentation fails to provide material growth or capital-return detail
  • • Investor presentation reveals lower-than-expected organic growth, weaker integration outcomes or higher reserve/capital needs; buyback program is limited and earnings disappoint, pushing valuation toward small-cap insurer multiples.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-13

Investor presentation publishes material updates (management presentation)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
25
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
+3.7
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
-9.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 24.5 / Value 47.3 / Sentiment 76.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$891.87M
Beta
-0.10
Shares Out
97.79M
P/E (TTM)
101.9
P/S (TTM)
4.00
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
13.15
Rev YoY
+29.9%
EPS YoY
-62.7%
Gross Margin
+82.2%
Op Margin
+33.4%
Net Debt
$373.06M
Current Ratio
0.70
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data