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ABX

Abacus Global ManagementB
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Investor presentation and successful integration of the Manning Napier minority stake drive distribution expansion and recurring-fee growth; buybacks and improved underwriting lift EPS materially, supporting a re-rating toward higher multiple territory.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.7.
What can break
Integration or regulatory issues from strategic minority investment
Momentum
19
Value
48
Sentiment
78
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.00 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $7.50Analysis 2026-03-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.06
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d +6.2
Value48 · Δ7d -0.9
Sentiment78 · Δ7d -2.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Integration or regulatory issues from strategic minority investment
  • • Investor presentation fails to provide material growth or capital-return detail
  • • Investor presentation reveals lower-than-expected organic growth, weaker integration outcomes or higher reserve/capital needs; buyback program is limited and earnings disappoint, pushing valuation toward small-cap insurer multiples.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-13

Investor presentation publishes material updates (management presentation)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.2
Δ21d
+7.0
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
78
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
-2.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 18.8 / Value 48.0 / Sentiment 78.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$811.68M
Beta
-0.10
Shares Out
97.79M
P/E (TTM)
101.9
P/S (TTM)
4.00
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
11.97
Rev YoY
+29.9%
EPS YoY
-62.7%
Gross Margin
+82.2%
Op Margin
+33.4%
Net Debt
$373.06M
Current Ratio
0.70
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data