B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ABVX
AbivaxDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Phase 3 progress, the planned NDA and a company-projected cash runway into Q4 2029 support a path toward potential commercialization without near-term financing pressure [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-21]. Company release
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.1.
What can break
Abivax's expanded safety analyses are company interpretations; malignancy and other long-term risks may receive further regulatory scrutiny [#PR-ABIVAX-2026-06-29]. Company release
Momentum
18
Value
41
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $100.00 · Bull $135.00 · Bear $55.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $157.26
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d +6.9
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d -2.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Abivax's expanded safety analyses are company interpretations; malignancy and other long-term risks may receive further regulatory scrutiny [#PR-ABIVAX-2026-06-29]. Company release
- • Crohn's-disease Phase 2b results remain a separate binary clinical risk; positive ulcerative-colitis data do not establish efficacy in Crohn's disease [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-21]. Company release
- • At the $95.10 October 1 anchor, substantial regulatory and launch success is already needed to support an approximately $8.36 billion packet market capitalization.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-20
Obefazimod data presentations at UEG Week
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.9
Δ21d
+11.3
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
66
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.1
Δ21d
-3.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 18.2 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 65.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$7.63B
Beta
1.48
Shares Out
87.55M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-16.0
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-30.90
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
-17.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$585.22M
Current Ratio
8.25
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data