B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$103.79
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
AAON
AAONBNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Operational leverage from higher margin product mix and successful new product adoption drives upside to low‑double‑digit revenue growth; margins expand modestly and shares rerate on improved guidance.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Construction slowdowns or raw material/transportation cost pressures compress margins; new product uptake lags and backlog weakens, causing revenue downgrades.
Momentum
8
Value
43
Sentiment
80
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $87.18 · Bull $103.79 · Bear $70.58Analysis 2025-12-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-12-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $138.50
Why
Momentum8 · Δ7d +0.5
Value43 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment80 · Δ7d -0.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Construction slowdowns or raw material/transportation cost pressures compress margins; new product uptake lags and backlog weakens, causing revenue downgrades.
- • Mixed signals. Wait for cleaner trend confirmation.
Catalyst clock
2025-11-15
New product line rollout
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
8
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+3.4
Value
43
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+2.1
Sentiment
80
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+6.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 7.8 / Value 42.9 / Sentiment 79.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-12-10. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$87.18
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$70.58
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.26B
Beta
1.10
Shares Out
82.45M
P/E (TTM)
67.7
P/S (TTM)
5.06
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-48.28
Rev YoY
+101.2%
EPS YoY
+262.5%
Gross Margin
+24.0%
Op Margin
+11.1%
Net Debt
$432.15M
Current Ratio
3.01
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data