B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AAMI
Acadian Asset ManagementDNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that Q1 delivered a genuine operating step-up: record inflows, record management fees, strong ENI growth, and still-strong long-term performance statistics together argue AAMI may be exiting a monitoring phase and into a more durable growth period.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.6.
What can break
AAMI's Q1 strength leaned heavily on exceptional net inflows and higher AUM, so any reversal in markets, performance, or client allocation decisions could quickly pressure management fees and sentiment [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Momentum
85
Value
48
Sentiment
36
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $60.00 · Bull $72.00 · Bear $48.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $86.33
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d -3.3
Value48 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment36 · Δ7d +1.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AAMI's Q1 strength leaned heavily on exceptional net inflows and higher AUM, so any reversal in markets, performance, or client allocation decisions could quickly pressure management fees and sentiment [#8-K-2026-04-30].
- • Checked sources did not provide clear T+3 analyst revision or target-change evidence, which lowers confidence that the strong print has broad external confirmation beyond management's own materials.
- • The bear case is that one exceptional quarter may already be in the stock, especially because AAMI's business remains highly sensitive to market levels, client flows, and performance persistence; if follow-through revisions are muted after the May 19 forum, the post-earnings rerating can stall.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-19
Q1 earnings reset the near-term narrative ahead of the May 19 investor forum
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
85
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.3
Δ21d
-4.1
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
36
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.6
Δ21d
+2.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 84.5 / Value 48.3 / Sentiment 36.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.3B
Beta
1.31
Shares Out
35.49M
P/E (TTM)
20.7
P/S (TTM)
3.15
P/FCF (TTM)
34.56
Rev YoY
+38.6%
EPS YoY
+171.9%
Gross Margin
+96.6%
Op Margin
+26.6%
Net Debt
$137M
Current Ratio
1.06
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data