EXK

AI Memo

Endeavour Silver

As of 2026-09-24/Confidence low

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-09-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

low

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Guanaceví mill repair • 2026-10-13

Base target: $9 / p=45% prob

Biggest risk

Guanaceví is running at reduced processing capacity, Terronera's community disruption remains a stability risk, and Q2 all-in sustaining cost rose to $36.89 per silver ounce from $25.16 a year earlier. [#PR-2026-09-22] Company release [#PR-2026-07-29] Company earnings release

Invalidation

Break below $7 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Q2 revenue reached $212.1 million and adjusted EPS was $0.15, alongside higher production and Kolpa throughput. At June 30, Endeavour reported $236.6 million in cash. Reliable Terronera operations and a timely Guanaceví repair could support recovery. [#PR-2026-07-29] Company earnings release

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

low

As of

2026-09-24

Base target

p=45%

Bull target

$12

p=25%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Terronera and Kolpa output gains
Q2 revenue reached $212.1 million and adjusted EPS was $0.15, alongside higher production and Kolpa throughput.
At June 30, Endeavour reported $236.6 million in cash.

BearKey bullets

Consolidated Q2 cash costs and all-in sustaining costs rose year over year; metal prices, royalties and Mexican peso strength can pressure margins.
[#PR-2026-07-29]
Guanaceví repair could exceed the company's approximately three-week expectation, increasing the Q3 production and cost impact.

WatchKey bullets

Guanaceví mill repair

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $9 (p=45%)

Target spread vs base: +31% / -26%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $12 (p=25%)Base Target: $9 (p=45%)Bear Target: $7 (p=30%)

Commentary

Company releases confirm that the August Terronera blockade was removed, but a new Guanaceví capacity reduction was announced September 22. The $9.26 price anchor follows that announcement; its incremental market impact cannot be isolated from the packet. Social, options, short-interest and employee measures are unavailable, so their zero placeholders are not observations. The stored earnings row is chiefly about Avino, and no dependable post-print EXK analyst revisions were established. The deterministic prior is neutral with very low evidence quality and slightly negative expected returns, supporting monitoring rather than a bullish call.

As of 2026-09-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Terronera and Kolpa output gains

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=30% prob

Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.30

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-10-13
Guanaceví mill repair
The primary ball mill went offline on September 21. Endeavour expects repairs within approximately three weeks; interim processing capacity is about 600 versus the usual 1,100 tonnes per day. A timely return to normal throughput would limit the production shortfall, while a delay would deepen it. [#PR-2026-09-22] Company release
Prob 65.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 40.00%
EVENT2026-12-23
Terronera operating stability
Endeavour said the Terronera blockade was removed and operations would resume August 24, but it continues working with the Ejido community. Sustained operations and improved recoveries need confirmation in subsequent production data. [#PR-2026-08-23] Company release
Prob 55.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Terronera and Kolpa output gains
2027-09-24
Q2 silver production rose 31% year over year, supported by Terronera and higher Kolpa throughput. The longer-term upside case requires those gains to persist without another material rise in consolidated costs. [#PR-2026-07-08] Company production release [#PR-2026-07-29] Company earnings release
Prob 45% • Move 12% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Consolidated Q2 cash costs and all-in sustaining costs rose year over year; metal prices, royalties and Mexican peso strength can pressure margins. [#PR-2026-07-29]
Guanaceví repair could exceed the company's approximately three-week expectation, increasing the Q3 production and cost impact. [#PR-2026-09-22]
Terronera's blockade ended, but durable community relations and uninterrupted production remain unproven. [#PR-2026-08-23]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AG	First Majestic is a more relevant silver-producer comparison than the packet's broad Materials peers. No verified like-for-like valuation multiple is available here.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-09-24

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Symbol

Summary

First Majestic is a more relevant silver-producer comparison than the packet's broad Materials peers. No verified like-for-like valuation multiple is available here.