YTRA

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Yatra Online

As of 2026-05-29/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence low

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

low

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Restructuring path remains possible but timing is not de-risked • 2026-08-31

Expected move: +3%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that the same release showed weaker Q4 revenue and profitability, with revenue down 13.7% YoY and management citing disruption in international aviation routes. The packet does not include analyst revisions or target changes after the print, so there is no external confirmation that estimates have improved.

Invalidation

Break below $1 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull case is that Yatra is still showing demand growth, with Q4 gross bookings up 8.0% YoY and full-year gross bookings up 13.6% YoY. If the Hotels and Packages weakness was mainly disruption-related, the company may be able to recover operating leverage as travel conditions normalize.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

low

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

p=55%

Bull target

p=20%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

FY2026 print showed bookings growth but weaker Q4 revenue and profit
Booking growth still needs to translate into steadier EBITDA
The bull case is that Yatra is still showing demand growth, with Q4 gross bookings up 8.0% YoY and full-year gross bookings up 13.6% YoY.

BearKey bullets

Hotels and Packages remain vulnerable to aviation-route disruption and travel-demand shocks.
No analyst revision, target-change, or estimate-reset signal was available in the packet after the earnings print.
Q4 revenue weakened even as bookings grew, which raises conversion and mix-quality questions.

WatchKey bullets

Restructuring path remains possible but timing is not de-risked

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $1 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +47% / -40%

Vs latest close: Bull +47% · Base +3% · Bear -40%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $1 (p=20%)Base Target: $1 (p=55%)Bear Target: $1 (p=25%)

Commentary

Sentiment remains mixed and low-conviction. The primary release gives a company-specific monitoring hook, but not a clean catalyst-driven call: bookings grew, while Q4 revenue and profitability weakened. Post-print market reaction and analyst revision evidence are not strong in the packet, and there is no social-context support to raise confidence. This should be read as a cautious monitoring view.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

FY2026 print showed bookings growth but weaker Q4 revenue and profit
Booking growth still needs to translate into steadier EBITDA

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=25% prob

Price $1 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +47% · Base +3% · Bear -40%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-31
Restructuring path remains possible but timing is not de-risked
Management again said it continues to explore restructuring alternatives, subject to regulatory considerations and timing uncertainty. This is a company-specific forward hook, but the evidence supports only monitoring rather than a high-conviction value-unlock catalyst [#PR-2026-05-22].
Prob 46.00% • Move 16.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

FY2026 print showed bookings growth but weaker Q4 revenue and profit
2026-05-22
The May 22 FY2026 release was mixed: Q4 revenue fell 13.7% YoY to INR 1,890.2 million, while total gross bookings rose 8.0% YoY and full-year gross bookings rose 13.6% YoY. Management said Hotels and Packages were hit by Middle East disruption on international aviation routes, so the near-term read-through remains cautious despite booking growth [#PR-2026-05-22].
Prob 72% • Move 10% • Priced-in 68%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Booking growth still needs to translate into steadier EBITDA
2026-12-31
The longer-term setup is whether Yatra can keep gross bookings growing while translating that demand into durable adjusted EBITDA and less volatile earnings. The FY2026 release showed positive Q4 adjusted EBITDA and double-digit annual booking growth, but the mix remains exposed to travel disruption and margin volatility [#PR-2026-05-22].
Prob 38% • Move 18% • Priced-in 32%

Risks

Hotels and Packages remain vulnerable to aviation-route disruption and travel-demand shocks.
No analyst revision, target-change, or estimate-reset signal was available in the packet after the earnings print.
Q4 revenue weakened even as bookings grew, which raises conversion and mix-quality questions.
Restructuring alternatives remain subject to regulatory considerations and timing uncertainty.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
MMYT	MakeMyTrip is the cleaner direct read-through for Indian OTA demand, corporate-travel mix, and margin execution because it is much larger and more liquid than Yatra.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-29

AI Stock Memo: YTRA - Yatra Online - RankAlpha