AI Stock Memo: YETI - YETI - RankAlpha

YETI

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

YETI

As of 2026-05-17/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Beat-and-raise quarter can still support a near-term revision cycle • 2026-06-15

Expected move: +0%

Biggest risk

The quality of the raise matters. EPS still fell year over year, DTC was flat because Corporate Sales declined, and the quarter carried a large tariff headwind. Available analyst reaction appears constructive, but the packet still lacks broad revision coverage, so it is too early to call this a full thesis reset.

Invalidation

Break below $37 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The post-earnings read-through improved meaningfully: YETI beat Street Q1 expectations on adjusted EPS and revenue in AP/Zacks coverage, raised the low end of sales outlook, raised EPS guidance, and expanded buybacks. That supports the view that demand, especially wholesale and Drinkware, is recovering faster than the pre-print baseline implied.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-17

Base target

$47

p=45%

Bull target

$52

p=30%

Bear target

$37

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Beat-and-raise quarter can still support a near-term revision cycle
Wholesale strength and Drinkware normalization are the clearest operating proof points
Margin recovery still depends on offsetting tariff and cost pressure

BearKey bullets

DTC sales were flat because stronger websites, Amazon, and retail performance was offset by weaker Corporate Sales, leaving a meaningful channel execution risk if that business does not recover [#8-K-2026-05-14].
Gross margin fell 210 basis points in Q1, including a 280 basis point tariff hit, so tariff and input-cost pressure remains the main earnings sensitivity [#8-K-2026-05-14].
Inventory rose to $318.4 million at April 4, 2026 from $290.6 million at January 3, 2026, while cash fell to $127.8 million from $188.3 million, which bears watching if demand or mix softens [#10-Q-2026-05-14].

WatchKey bullets

At the May 15 anchor close of $42.67, shares trade below the packet’s median analyst target of about $50.67, implying roughly 19% upside.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $47 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +11% / -21%

Vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base +0% · Bear -21%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $52 (p=30%)Base Target: $47 (p=45%)Bear Target: $37 (p=25%)

Commentary

Sentiment improved after the May 14, 2026 print: trusted coverage highlighted an earnings beat, raised outlook, and an about-8% share jump, and the stock closed at $42.67 on May 15, 2026. The tone is better than the prior neutral baseline, but this is still a cautious post-earnings monitoring setup because analyst revision coverage is thin in the packet and no usable social-context signal was provided.

As of 2026-05-17 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Beat-and-raise quarter can still support a near-term revision cycle
Wholesale strength and Drinkware normalization are the clearest operating proof points
Margin recovery still depends on offsetting tariff and cost pressure

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$52 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$47 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$37 / p=25% prob

Price $47 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 0%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base +0% · Bear -21%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

67.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Beat-and-raise quarter can still support a near-term revision cycle
2026-06-15
YETI’s May 14 earnings release showed Q1 sales up 8% to $380.4 million, adjusted EPS of $0.26, a higher 2026 sales floor of 7% to 8%, a higher adjusted operating margin outlook of about 14.6%, and a higher EPS outlook of $2.83 to $2.89, while the share repurchase authorization was increased to $500 million [#8-K-2026-05-14]. Trusted follow-up coverage also indicated post-print target increases, but revision coverage is still incomplete.
Prob 72% • Move 8% • Priced-in 62%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Wholesale strength and Drinkware normalization are the clearest operating proof points
2026-09-30
The quarter showed wholesale sales up 19%, Coolers & Equipment up 11%, Drinkware up 5%, and management said U.S. Drinkware returned to growth, suggesting the sell-in reset may be easing and innovation is landing across channels [#8-K-2026-05-14]. If that mix persists into the next two quarters, YETI has a cleaner path to sustaining the raised revenue outlook.
Prob 64% • Move 12% • Priced-in 48%
Margin recovery still depends on offsetting tariff and cost pressure
2026-12-31
Q1 gross margin fell 210 basis points to 55.3%, including a 280 basis point unfavorable tariff impact, and the 10-Q still frames tariff exposure, supply-chain diversification, and other mitigation actions as key forward variables [#8-K-2026-05-14] [#10-Q-2026-05-14] [#10-K-2026-02-27]. A cleaner margin bridge would support rerating, but failure to offset tariffs, freight, and input costs would cap upside.
Prob 55% • Move -9% • Priced-in 54%

Risks

DTC sales were flat because stronger websites, Amazon, and retail performance was offset by weaker Corporate Sales, leaving a meaningful channel execution risk if that business does not recover [#8-K-2026-05-14].
Gross margin fell 210 basis points in Q1, including a 280 basis point tariff hit, so tariff and input-cost pressure remains the main earnings sensitivity [#8-K-2026-05-14].
Inventory rose to $318.4 million at April 4, 2026 from $290.6 million at January 3, 2026, while cash fell to $127.8 million from $188.3 million, which bears watching if demand or mix softens [#10-Q-2026-05-14].
The earnings beat has some dependence on outlook assumptions and incomplete analyst follow-through; if estimate revisions stall after the first-day reaction, valuation support may narrow.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
COLM	Columbia Sportswear is the closest peer in this packet for branded outdoor product demand, wholesale versus DTC balance, and international expansion execution.
KTB	Kontoor Brands is a useful consumer-brand peer for reading wholesale ordering behavior, channel mix, and margin sensitivity even though the product set is less adjacent than YETI’s.
SHOO	Steven Madden is a looser but still relevant discretionary brand peer for promotional intensity, partner ordering trends, and DTC-versus-wholesale demand signals.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-17