YELP

Rating neutralAI Memo

Yelp

As of 2026-05-16/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Large repurchase authorization can cushion downside if execution stabilizes • 2026-11-30

Expected move: -10%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that Yelp is still fighting core ad stagnation: total paying advertising locations fell 6% year over year, RR&O advertising weakened, local businesses remain under pressure, and management explicitly expects a year-over-year revenue decline plus lower adjusted EBITDA in Q2 as AI and marketing investment steps up. That leaves the name vulnerable to a value trap outcome where buybacks mask but do not solve slow core growth.

Invalidation

Break below $18 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Primary-source evidence supports a cautious bull case centered on mix shift: other revenue is scaling materially faster than the core business, Hatch expands AI lead-management capability, and management reaffirmed full-year guidance despite a pressured local economy. At the anchor price, shares also trade below the packet's median target of $25.5 and below Yelp's disclosed Q1 repurchase average near $24.58, implying modest valuation support if execution holds.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-16

Base target

$24

p=1%

Bull target

$28

p=0%

Bear target

$18

p=0%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 beat and reaffirmed outlook offset by weaker profitability
AI transformation and other-revenue mix shift could re-rate the story
Primary-source evidence supports a cautious bull case centered on mix shift: other revenue is scaling materially faster than the core business, Hatch expands AI lead-management capability, and management reaffirmed full-year guidance despite a pressured local economy.

BearKey bullets

Cash and cash equivalents fell materially in Q1 as Yelp funded the Hatch acquisition, repurchased stock aggressively, and ended the quarter with $130M drawn on its revolving credit facility.
Execution risk remains elevated around integrating Hatch and converting AI products, data licensing and Yelp Host into durable revenue rather than one-off enthusiasm.
Management said adverse conditions for consumers and local businesses persisted, and the 10-Q shows total paying advertising locations fell 6% year over year to 485 thousand.

WatchKey bullets

Large repurchase authorization can cushion downside if execution stabilizes

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $24 (p=1%)

Bull/Bear spread: +7% / -33%

Vs latest close: Bull +7% · Base -10% · Bear -33%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $28 (p=0%)Base Target: $24 (p=1%)Bear Target: $18 (p=0%)

Commentary

Primary-source coverage is solid, but the thesis is still mostly a monitoring view rather than a confirmed growth reacceleration. Recent coverage was earnings-driven and moderately active, with secondary sources indicating a consensus beat, yet the company itself framed the operating environment as challenging and guided to softer year-over-year Q2 revenue and EBITDA. Analyst revision depth in the packet is limited, so confidence should stay moderate and investors should watch whether post-earnings skepticism around core ad growth outweighs the early traction in AI-linked other revenue.

As of 2026-05-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 beat and reaffirmed outlook offset by weaker profitability
AI transformation and other-revenue mix shift could re-rate the story

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=0% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$24 / p=1% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$18 / p=0% prob

Price $26 as of 2026-07-17

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 7%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +7% · Base -10% · Bear -33%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-11-30
Large repurchase authorization can cushion downside if execution stabilizes
Yelp's board added $500M to the buyback in February 2026, leaving $413.8M authorized at March 31, 2026, and the company repurchased about 5.1M shares for roughly $125M in Q1; continued aggressive repurchases can support per-share metrics and provide valuation support, though that support weakens if cash usage and leverage rise further [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
Prob 75.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 65.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 beat and reaffirmed outlook offset by weaker profitability
2026-08-06
Q1 net revenue rose 1% to $361.5M, adjusted EBITDA fell 7% to $79.4M, and management reaffirmed full-year 2026 net revenue of $1.455B-$1.475B and adjusted EBITDA of $310M-$330M; the setup is supportive only if investors gain confidence that modest top-line growth can coexist with margin discipline [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 75%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

AI transformation and other-revenue mix shift could re-rate the story
2026-12-31
Management said other revenue grew 75% year over year to a record $29M, highlighted Hatch, Yelp Host, data licensing and API products, and in the 10-Q disclosed new licensing agreements including OpenAI while targeting a $250M annual run rate for other revenue by the end of 2028; if these streams scale faster than core ad softness, the market could assign a higher multiple to Yelp's mix and durability [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
Prob 55% • Move 14% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Cash and cash equivalents fell materially in Q1 as Yelp funded the Hatch acquisition, repurchased stock aggressively, and ended the quarter with $130M drawn on its revolving credit facility.
Execution risk remains elevated around integrating Hatch and converting AI products, data licensing and Yelp Host into durable revenue rather than one-off enthusiasm.
Management said adverse conditions for consumers and local businesses persisted, and the 10-Q shows total paying advertising locations fell 6% year over year to 485 thousand.
Q2 is guided for a year-over-year revenue decline and lower adjusted EBITDA as Yelp increases AI and marketing spend, so near-term margin pressure is still in front of investors.
RR&O advertising remains weak, with management citing lower ad clicks and competitive pressure from food ordering and delivery providers.
Yelp remains reliant on internet search engines and application marketplaces, some of which also compete directly with its products.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TRIP	TripAdvisor is the closest public comp in user-generated local discovery and monetization of intent traffic, though TRIP is travel-skewed while Yelp is broader local services and restaurants.
GTM	ZoomInfo is a loose comp through data, lead generation and software-enabled monetization, but its end market and sales model are less directly comparable than Yelp's local advertising and transaction flows.
CCO	Clear Channel Outdoor is mainly a local advertising-spend exposure comp rather than an operating peer; it is useful for ad-cycle sensitivity but weak for product and platform comparison.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-16

AI Stock Memo: YELP - Yelp - RankAlpha