VSNT

Rating neutralTentativeAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Versant Media Group

As of 2026-05-17/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 earnings confirmed cash generation but weaker core revenue [#8-K-2026-05-14] • 2026-05-20

Expected move: -6%

Biggest risk

The bearish read is that the core business is still shrinking where it matters most: linear distribution revenue fell 7.3%, advertising fell 5.2%, management explicitly expects continued subscriber and ratings declines, and separation-related public-company and interest costs weighed on net income. That leaves the stock exposed if platform growth and licensing timing are not enough to offset structural erosion.

Invalidation

Break below $34 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The constructive read is that Q1 showed the business can still produce strong profitability and cash conversion despite revenue pressure: adjusted EBITDA was $704 million on $1.687 billion of revenue, free cash flow was $558 million, platforms grew 9.5%, and management is returning cash through buybacks, an ASR, and dividends. This supports a hold case if investors focus on standalone cash generation rather than only legacy-TV decline.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-17

Base target

$39

p=0%

Bull target

$46

p=0%

Bear target

$34

p=0%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings digestion remains a tentative monitoring setup
Capital returns can cushion sentiment if free cash flow stays durable [#8-K-2026-05-14]
The constructive read is that Q1 showed the business can still produce strong profitability and cash conversion despite revenue pressure: adjusted EBITDA was $704 million on $1.687 billion of revenue, free cash flow was $558 million, platforms grew 9.5%, and management is returning cash through buybacks, an ASR, and dividends.

BearKey bullets

Management also said ratings declines and the shift toward digital advertising are expected to continue, pressuring network advertising trends.
[#10-Q-2026-05-14]
Management said it expects continued declines in subscribers and linear distribution revenue, which keeps the legacy-TV headwind intact.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 earnings confirmed cash generation but weaker core revenue [#8-K-2026-05-14]

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $39 (p=0%)

Bull/Bear spread: +11% / -18%

Vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base -6% · Bear -18%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $46 (p=0%)Base Target: $39 (p=0%)Bear Target: $34 (p=0%)

Commentary

Post-earnings tone is mixed rather than decisively positive. The May 14, 2026 company filing and earnings release provide concrete company-source evidence for Q1 results, cash flow and capital returns, while packet news coverage the same day highlighted lower subscriber numbers and ad sales; another same-day WSJ headline indicated the stock regained lost ground. Using the May 15, 2026 anchor close of $42.98, the immediate reaction appears to have stabilized, but no clearly attributable post-print analyst target, rating, or estimate-revision set was confirmed in the supplied or checked evidence. Because the peer set is loose and forward evidence is limited, this remains a tentative monitoring memo rather than a standard-conviction call.

As of 2026-05-17 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings digestion remains a tentative monitoring setup
Capital returns can cushion sentiment if free cash flow stays durable [#8-K-2026-05-14]

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$46 / p=0% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$39 / p=0% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$34 / p=0% prob

Price $42 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base -6% · Bear -18%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.05

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-20
Q1 earnings confirmed cash generation but weaker core revenue [#8-K-2026-05-14]
Versant reported Q1 2026 revenue of $1.687 billion, net income attributable to Versant of $286 million, adjusted EBITDA of $704 million, operating cash flow of $585 million, and free cash flow of $558 million. The company-source evidence is concrete, but the operating mix was mixed: linear distribution fell 7.3% and advertising fell 5.2%, while platforms grew 9.5% and content licensing rose on timing. Management also said it expects continued subscriber and ratings declines. [#8-K-2026-05-14] [#10-Q-2026-05-14]
Prob 85.00% • Move -4.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings digestion remains a tentative monitoring setup
2026-05-29
The packet supports a mixed post-print narrative: company filings highlighted platform growth, profitability, free cash flow and capital returns, while trusted news headlines emphasized lower subscriber numbers and ad sales. The only market-reaction evidence in the packet is a same-day headline that the stock regained lost ground; no checked source provides a concrete post-print analyst revision wave, rating change, or estimate-change set. That limits conviction in any near-term rerating claim.
Prob 60% • Move -3% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Capital returns can cushion sentiment if free cash flow stays durable [#8-K-2026-05-14]
2026-07-22
The company repurchased $100 million of Class A shares in Q1, declared a second quarterly dividend of $0.375 per share payable on July 22, 2026, and announced a planned $100 million accelerated share repurchase starting May 15, 2026. This is a tangible shareholder-return support, but it depends on continued free cash flow durability while the linear distribution and advertising base declines. [#8-K-2026-05-14]
Prob 62% • Move 5% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Management also said ratings declines and the shift toward digital advertising are expected to continue, pressuring network advertising trends. [#10-Q-2026-05-14]
Management said it expects continued declines in subscribers and linear distribution revenue, which keeps the legacy-TV headwind intact. [#10-Q-2026-05-14]
Net income was pressured by higher public-company costs and interest expense following the separation from Comcast, so standalone cost structure remains an important watch item. [#8-K-2026-05-14]
The ten largest multichannel video provider customers accounted for about 60% of accounts receivable at March 31, 2026, highlighting customer concentration risk. [#10-Q-2026-05-14]
Total long-term debt was about $2.952 billion as of March 31, 2026, and a first-lien net leverage covenant begins in Q3 2026, adding balance-sheet execution risk. [#10-Q-2026-05-14]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NXST	Nexstar is the closest operating comparator in the packet because it has meaningful exposure to advertising and legacy linear distribution economics; it is the main peer read-through for TV-network pressure, but the memo should not lean heavily on peer valuation from a single close comp.
LBRDA	Liberty Broadband is in the same broad media and entertainment sector and similar market-cap range, but its broadband/holding-company exposure makes it an imperfect operating comp for Versant's cable-network and platform mix.
MTCH	Match Group is an adjacent digital-media comp rather than a direct operating peer; it is useful only as a broad platform monetization reference and should not drive the thesis.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-17

AI Stock Memo: VSNT - Versant Media Group - RankAlpha