UCB

AI Memo

United Community Banks

As of 2026-01-16/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Potential Strategic Transactions / M&A (assumed window) • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +8%

Biggest risk

Deposit pressure, NIM compression or rising loan‑loss provisions force higher funding costs and pause buybacks; combined with integration setbacks, this precipitates multiple compression and leaves shares below the anchor.

Invalidation

Break below $30 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained NIM expansion, disciplined buybacks, and realized merger synergies drive EPS upside and multiple expansion; with stable credit metrics this pushes the stock toward the high‑end analyst range within 12 months.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-16

Base target

$35

p=60%

Bull target

$38

p=20%

Bear target

$30

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 Quarterly Results (estimated)
Net Interest Margin (NIM) Recovery
Sustained NIM expansion, disciplined buybacks, and realized merger synergies drive EPS upside and multiple expansion; with stable credit metrics this pushes the stock toward the high‑end analyst range within 12 months.

BearKey bullets

Credit deterioration and rising loan-loss provisions
Execution failures (integration, buybacks) or regulatory actions
NIM compression / higher funding costs

WatchKey bullets

Potential Strategic Transactions / M&A (assumed window)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $35 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +16% / -9%

Vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base +8% · Bear -9%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $38 (p=20%)Base Target: $35 (p=60%)Bear Target: $30 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst consensus clusters in the mid‑$30s with a cautiously constructive tone after recent earnings and a $100M buyback; market focus is integration execution and NIM sustainability, implying limited near-term upside absent clear delivery.

As of 2026-01-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 Quarterly Results (estimated)
Net Interest Margin (NIM) Recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-16Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$35.00

Range (USD)

$32.48 - $114.79

Count

Query: United Community Banks Inc Common (UCB) analyst consensus price target high low average

United Community Banks (UCB) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 6 analysts, the average 12-month price target for United Community Banks is 35.41667, with a high estimate of 38 and a low ...
Open source
Consensus United Community Banks, Inc. Nasdaq - MarketScreener
Search result #2
Spread / Average Target. +11.37%. High Price Target. 38.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +20.06%. Low Price Target. 33.50USD. Spread / Lowest Target. +5.85% ...
Extracted: $38.00, $33.50Open source
UCB Stock Forecast 2026 - UCB Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #3
Based on our analysis of 8 Wall Street analysts, UCB has a neutral consensus with a median price target of $35.00 (ranging from $33.50 to $38.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $35.00, $33.50, $38.00Open source
United Community Banks (UCB) Price Targets
Search result #4
The forecasts range from a low of $33.50 to a high of $38.00. The average price target represents an increase of 9.05% from the last closing price of $32.48.
Extracted: $33.50, $38.00, $32.48Open source
United Community Banks (UCB) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ...
Search result #5
The average price target is $114.79 with a high forecast of $349.17 and a low forecast of $36.00. The average price target represents a 253.43% change from the ...
Extracted: $114.79, $349.17, $36.00Open source
UCB Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target 2026
Search result #6
5 analysts have given UCB a consensus rating of Buy while the UCB price prediction in 2026 is $34.60.
Extracted: $34.60Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$38 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$35 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=20% prob

Price $33 as of 2026-06-18

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 8%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base +8% · Bear -9%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Potential Strategic Transactions / M&A (assumed window)
No public transaction date disclosed; assume a mid-2026 window and use the window end for scheduling — strategic consolidation or acquisitions remain a plausible upside path if executed accretively.
Prob 20.00% • Move 25.00% • Priced-in 15.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 Quarterly Results (estimated)
2026-04-16
Quarterly earnings and guidance release; net interest income (NII) surprise or stronger credit metrics could prompt a re-rating; consensus estimates used for context [#SERP-1][#SERP-3].
Prob 55% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Net Interest Margin (NIM) Recovery
2027-01-16
Sustained NIM expansion as loan mix re-prices and deposit costs stabilize could materially lift earnings over the next year; outcome assumes steady rates and normalizing deposit flows [#SERP-4].
Prob 45% • Move 18% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Credit deterioration and rising loan-loss provisions
Execution failures (integration, buybacks) or regulatory actions
NIM compression / higher funding costs

Peers

Symbol	Summary
RF	Larger regional bank used to benchmark deposit beta, funding cost sensitivity and margin cycles relevant to UCB.
CMA	Commercial- and regional-banking peer; comparable exposure to CRE/COM loan cycles and sensitivity to local economic trends.
CFG	Regional franchise with similar retail and commercial mix; useful for assessing multiple expansion potential if NIM and credit stabilize.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: United Community Banks Inc Common (UCB) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-16

AI Stock Memo: UCB - United Community Banks - RankAlpha