AI Stock Memo: TV - Grupo Televisa SA.B - RankAlpha

TV

Rating neutralAI Memo

Grupo Televisa SA.B

As of 2026-05-29/Confidence low

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

low

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 operating print showed margin expansion despite softer revenue • 2026-04-28

Expected move: +33%

Biggest risk

Bear case is that the satellite business is still shrinking sharply, revenue is still negative year over year, and S&P's May 8 downgrade to BBB- with a negative outlook signals credit and re-rating risk remains live [#PR-1Q26-2026][#PR-SP-2026].

Invalidation

Break below $2 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bullish case is that the 1Q26 print shows operating leverage: revenue only fell 3.1% while OSI rose 5.2%, margins expanded 330 bps, FTTH progress accelerated, and residential/enterprise growth helped offset satellite weakness [#PR-1Q26-2026].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

low

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

p=50%

Bull target

p=20%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

S&P cut the credit rating and kept a negative outlook
FTTH rollout and telecom integration still have room to re-rate the stock
Bullish case is that the 1Q26 print shows operating leverage: revenue only fell 3.1% while OSI rose 5.2%, margins expanded 330 bps, FTTH progress accelerated, and residential/enterprise growth helped offset satellite weakness [#PR-1Q26-2026].

BearKey bullets

Margin gains need to persist if revenue continues to soften.
Net debt is still sizable at Ps.49.8 billion even after quarter-over-quarter improvement.
Satellite revenue and RGU erosion remain severe relative to residential and enterprise growth.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 operating print showed margin expansion despite softer revenue

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $4 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +120% / -36%

Vs latest close: Bull +120% · Base +33% · Bear -36%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $6 (p=20%)Base Target: $4 (p=50%)Bear Target: $2 (p=30%)

Commentary

This is a monitoring-style setup: the primary Q1 2026 release was mixed-to-better on margins and subscriber adds, but revenue still fell and satellite remained a drag; the May 8 S&P downgrade adds credit pressure. No reliable analyst revision or post-print price-reaction data was available in the packet, so the memo stays cautious rather than bullish.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

S&P cut the credit rating and kept a negative outlook
FTTH rollout and telecom integration still have room to re-rate the stock

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$6 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$4 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=30% prob

Price $3 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 33%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +120% · Base +33% · Bear -36%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

42.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-28
Q1 2026 operating print showed margin expansion despite softer revenue
Televisa's April 28, 2026 first-quarter release showed revenue down 3.1% but operating segment income up 5.2%, with margin rising to 41.4% and operating cash flow margin at 24.2%; residential and enterprise growth partly offset satellite weakness [#PR-1Q26-2026].
Prob 60.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

S&P cut the credit rating and kept a negative outlook
2026-05-08
On May 8, 2026, Televisa said S&P Global Ratings downgraded the issuer and issue-level ratings to BBB- from BBB and set the outlook to negative, keeping refinancing and valuation pressure in focus [#PR-SP-2026].
Prob 45% • Move -10% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

FTTH rollout and telecom integration still have room to re-rate the stock
2026-12-31
Management said the integrated Telecom segment had upgraded more than 1.5 million homes to FTTH, passed over 20 million homes, and added broadband and mobile subscribers, suggesting the rerating thesis depends on sustaining execution beyond one quarter [#PR-1Q26-2026].
Prob 50% • Move 12% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Margin gains need to persist if revenue continues to soften.
Net debt is still sizable at Ps.49.8 billion even after quarter-over-quarter improvement.
Satellite revenue and RGU erosion remain severe relative to residential and enterprise growth.
The S&P downgrade to BBB- with a negative outlook may keep funding costs and the multiple compressed.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
LILA	Closest listed Latin American telecom peer by size; useful for judging whether regional cable/mobile convergence and execution are being rewarded.
BCE	Mature incumbent telecom benchmark for cash flow and balance-sheet discipline.
IDT	Smaller communications peer in the same market-cap band, but less directly comparable operationally than LILA.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-29