TRST

AI MemoPost-earnings T+1

TrustCo Bank NY

As of 2026-07-22/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-07-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 2026 operating improvement • 2026-07-21

Expected move: +3%

Biggest risk

The evidence does not include consensus comparisons, analyst revisions, guidance changes, or post-release market attribution. Deposit-pricing competition, interest-rate changes, credit conditions, and execution could limit the benefit from repricing.

Invalidation

Break below $50 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Q2 showed improving EPS, net interest income, margin, loans, deposits, book value, and capital return activity. Continued asset repricing and buybacks could support earnings per share and shareholder returns.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-07-22

Base target

$58

p=55%

Bull target

$61

p=25%

Bear target

$50

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings price discovery
Share repurchase execution
Loan repricing and balanced core growth

BearKey bullets

Credit quality and borrower financial conditions remain execution risks despite reported loan growth.
Deposit-pricing competition could reduce the benefit from loan repricing.
Interest-rate, inflation, and monetary-policy changes could affect net interest margin, liquidity, and capital.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 2026 operating improvement

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $58 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +10% / -10%

Vs latest close: Bull +10% · Base +3% · Bear -10%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $61 (p=25%)Base Target: $58 (p=55%)Bear Target: $50 (p=20%)

Commentary

News tone is positive around the reported Q2 improvement, but the packet lacks a confirmed post-release price reaction, analyst revisions, target changes, options data, short interest, employee sentiment, and usable social coverage. Low coverage and limited forward guidance support a monitoring-style interpretation.

As of 2026-07-22 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings price discovery
Share repurchase execution
Loan repricing and balanced core growth

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$61 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$58 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$50 / p=20% prob

Price $56 as of 2026-07-22

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +10% · Base +3% · Bear -10%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.70

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-21
Q2 2026 operating improvement
TrustCo reported diluted EPS of $0.98, net income of $17.0 million, net interest income of $45.6 million, and net interest margin of 2.87% for Q2 2026, with year-over-year growth in each measure. Average loans and deposits both increased 3.8% year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
Prob 100.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings price discovery
2026-07-28
Q2 results were released on July 21, but the packet does not provide the pre-release close, post-print price attribution, analyst revisions, or target changes. Near-term trading should be treated as monitoring rather than confirmed momentum.
Prob 70% • Move 1% • Priced-in 65%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Share repurchase execution
2026-12-31
The company reported repurchases equal to 10.5% of outstanding common stock through the first half of 2026 and stated it was on pace to repurchase three million shares, or 15.8% of shares, by year-end 2026. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
Prob 75% • Move 5% • Priced-in 60%
Loan repricing and balanced core growth
2026-12-31
Management attributed Q2 net interest income and margin improvement to loan-portfolio repricing, deposit growth, and deposit-pricing execution. Continued loan and deposit growth could support earnings, but forward visibility remains limited by low coverage and unavailable guidance or estimates. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 55%

Risks

Credit quality and borrower financial conditions remain execution risks despite reported loan growth.
Deposit-pricing competition could reduce the benefit from loan repricing.
Interest-rate, inflation, and monetary-policy changes could affect net interest margin, liquidity, and capital.
No analyst target, estimate-revision, or guidance data is available.
The peer set is limited to loosely matched same-sector market-cap candidates.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AMTB	Same-sector bank candidate with similar market capitalization; no packet-specific relative valuation or operating comparison is available.
BFST	Same-sector bank candidate with similar market capitalization; no packet-specific relative valuation or operating comparison is available.
CCNE	Same-sector bank candidate with similar market capitalization; no packet-specific relative valuation or operating comparison is available.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-07-22

AI Stock Memo: TRST - TrustCo Bank NY - RankAlpha