AI Stock Memo: TRP - TC Energy - RankAlpha

TRP

Rating buyAI Memo

TC Energy

As of 2026-01-27/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q4 / FY2025 results and guidance • 2026-04-27

Expected move: -10%

Biggest risk

Regulatory setbacks, lower throughput or a material dividend cut amid higher financing costs would pressure valuation; investor focus on leverage could push the share price toward the high-$40s / mid-cycle downside.

Invalidation

Break below $48 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Stable, fee-based cash flows plus disciplined capital allocation sustain the dividend and enable multiple re-ratings; successful project execution and modest target upgrades drive upside into the low-to-mid $80s as risk premium compresses [#SERP-3].

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-27

Base target

$60

p=60%

Bull target

$80

p=20%

Bear target

$48

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 / FY2025 results and guidance
Annual capital allocation & dividend update
Stable, fee-based cash flows plus disciplined capital allocation sustain the dividend and enable multiple re-ratings; successful project execution and modest target upgrades drive upside into the low-to-mid $80s as risk premium compresses [#SERP-3].

BearKey bullets

Material dividend cut or capital allocation shift
Regulatory setbacks for major pipeline projects
Rising interest rates increasing financing costs

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 56.26, "timestamp_utc": "2026-01-23T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Targets are computed from the authoritative anchor above.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $60 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +20% / -28%

Vs latest close: Bull +20% · Base -10% · Bear -28%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $80 (p=20%)Base Target: $60 (p=60%)Bear Target: $48 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market commentary is mixed: some services show modest upside from current levels while others have trimmed targets to around the mid-$50s, reflecting cautious near-term sentiment [#SERP-2]. A subset of analysts maintain materially higher targets (up to the low $90s), indicating divergence driven by differing assumptions on project execution and long-term fundamentals [#SERP-3]. Overall tone is cautious-to-constructive with dividend stability a central theme [#SERP-1].

As of 2026-01-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 / FY2025 results and guidance
Annual capital allocation & dividend update

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-27Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$59.94

Range (USD)

$46.22 - $92.00

Count

Query: TC Energy Corp Common (TRP) analyst consensus price target high low average

TC Energy stock forecast - TRP - TipRanks
Search result #1
The average price target is $61.62 with a high forecast of $78.00 and a low forecast of $53.93. The average price target represents a 9.53% change from the last ...
Extracted: $61.62, $78.00, $53.93Open source
TC Energy Corporation (TRP) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Lowering target price to $57.00 TC ENERGY CORP has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $57.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management ...
Extracted: $57.00Open source
TC Energy Corp. Analyst Estimates - TRP - MarketWatch
Search result #3
Stock Price Targets. High, $92.00. Median, $80.00. Low, $67.00. Average, $79.90. Current Price, $55.03. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. TRP will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $92.00, $80.00, $67.00, $79.90, $55.03Open source
TC Energy Corporation: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
CIBC Updates Its Ratings and Price Targets For Canadian Energy Infrastructure Companies · RBC Reiterates TC Energy's Outperform Rating, C$84 Price Target · TC ...
Extracted: $84.00Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for TC Energy (TRP)
Search result #5
The forecasts for TC Energy Corporation (TRP) range from a low of $47 to a high of $66.82. The average price target represents a increase of $2.44 from the last ...
Extracted: $47.00, $66.82, $2.44Open source
TransCanada Consensus Estimates (TRP) - Investing.com Canada
Search result #6
According to projections from 22 analysts, the average 12-month price target for TC Energy is 79.18, with a high estimate of 92 and a low estimate of 63.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$80 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$60 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$48 / p=20% prob

Price $67 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +20% · Base -10% · Bear -28%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 / FY2025 results and guidance
2026-04-27
Quarterly results and updated 2026 guidance could move consensus and dividends; analyst target revisions frequently follow results [#SERP-1].
Prob 75% • Move 6% • Priced-in 45%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Annual capital allocation & dividend update
2027-01-27
Annual capital allocation / dividend policy update will affect yield relative valuation and long-term investor appetite (assumed timing for next annual update) [#SERP-2].
Prob 70% • Move 4% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Material dividend cut or capital allocation shift
Regulatory setbacks for major pipeline projects
Rising interest rates increasing financing costs
Sustained declines in energy demand or throughput

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ENB	Enbridge: similar North American pipeline footprint and regulated cash-flow profile; comparable dividend focus.
KMI	Kinder Morgan: U.S.-centric midstream exposure and pipeline fee-based earnings—useful operational comparator.
PBA	Pembina Pipeline: Canadian pipeline/infrastructure peer with dividend emphasis and sensitivity to commodity flows.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: TC Energy Corp Common (TRP) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-27