TRLV

AI Memo

Trulieve Cannabis

As of 2026-06-11/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-06-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Federal marijuana rescheduling process and June 29 hearing • 2026-06-29

Expected move: +26%

Biggest risk

Forward visibility remains limited because the packet lacks a stored earnings transcript, recent third-party news flow, and clean direct-peer evidence; revenue was down year over year in Q1 and the thesis still depends meaningfully on regulatory outcomes and management sustaining unusually strong margins in a volatile category. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]

Invalidation

Break below $9 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Primary-source evidence supports a real operating improvement story: Trulieve reported positive Q1 net income, strong EBITDA, and strong cash generation while carrying a sizable cash balance, and federal rescheduling progress could materially improve the earnings power of a scaled U.S. cannabis operator. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-06-11

Base target

$13

p=45%

Bull target

$16

p=30%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 profitability and free-cash-flow durability
Retail footprint and new-market optionality
Primary-source evidence supports a real operating improvement story: Trulieve reported positive Q1 net income, strong EBITDA, and strong cash generation while carrying a sizable cash balance, and federal rescheduling progress could materially improve the earnings power of a scaled U.S.

BearKey bullets

Cannabis rescheduling and DEA-registration benefits are not fully in the company's control and timing or scope could disappoint.
[#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]
Peer set quality in the packet is weak for operating comparison, which lowers confidence in relative-valuation conclusions.

WatchKey bullets

Federal marijuana rescheduling process and June 29 hearing

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $13 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +50% / -18%

Vs latest close: Bull +50% · Base +26% · Bear -18%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $16 (p=30%)Base Target: $13 (p=45%)Bear Target: $9 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary-source tone is constructive because the latest company-reported quarter showed profitability, strong EBITDA, and free cash flow, but external confirmation is thin: the packet has no recent news set, no social coverage with sufficient data, and no analyst-revision detail. That supports a cautious positive monitoring stance rather than a high-conviction momentum call.

As of 2026-06-11 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 profitability and free-cash-flow durability
Retail footprint and new-market optionality

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$16 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$13 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=25% prob

Price $10 as of 2026-06-12

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 18%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +50% · Base +26% · Bear -18%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-29
Federal marijuana rescheduling process and June 29 hearing
Management said the Trump Administration reclassified medical marijuana to Schedule III and that a broader review hearing begins on June 29, 2026; Trulieve also said it filed DEA registration applications covering 206 retail locations, creating a potentially material tax and operating-structure catalyst if the process advances. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]
Prob 55.00% • Move 18.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 profitability and free-cash-flow durability
2026-08-12
Q1 2026 showed $287 million revenue, 59% gross margin, $2 million net income, $100 million adjusted EBITDA, $56 million operating cash flow, $42 million free cash flow, and $353 million cash, which supports a near-term rerating if investors gain confidence these margins and cash metrics are sustainable. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]
Prob 65% • Move 10% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Retail footprint and new-market optionality
2026-12-31
The company exited 2025 with conditional approval for a Texas Compassionate Use Program dispensing license, 233 retail locations, and refinanced debt with secured notes due 2030; if Trulieve converts footprint scale into higher-volume growth without margin erosion, the equity could close part of its gap to the packet's median target. [#SEC-8K-2026-02-26]
Prob 45% • Move 22% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Cannabis rescheduling and DEA-registration benefits are not fully in the company's control and timing or scope could disappoint. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]
Peer set quality in the packet is weak for operating comparison, which lowers confidence in relative-valuation conclusions.
Q1 2026 revenue fell 4% year over year to $287 million, so margin improvement is currently doing more of the work than top-line acceleration. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]
The company remains exposed to state-level demand, pricing, and retail execution risk despite a large footprint.
The evidence set lacks a full stored earnings transcript, limiting visibility into management's detailed commentary on demand, pricing, and margin sustainability.

Peers

No peer data

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-06-11

AI Stock Memo: TRLV - Trulieve Cannabis - RankAlpha