TK

AI Memo

Teekay

As of 2026-05-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 results and $1.00 special dividend • 2026-06-02

Expected move: +2%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that this is a cyclical earnings spike: if geopolitical disruptions ease or rates normalize, cash generation and the special-dividend cadence could fall quickly, limiting upside durability.

Invalidation

Break below $9 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull case is that Teekay is capturing unusually strong tanker spot rates, converting them into cash returns, and steadily upgrading its fleet while retaining operating leverage to any further market tightness.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

$12

p=50%

Bull target

$15

p=25%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Record Q2-to-date tanker rates stay elevated
Fleet renewal continues through vessel purchases and sales
The bull case is that Teekay is capturing unusually strong tanker spot rates, converting them into cash returns, and steadily upgrading its fleet while retaining operating leverage to any further market tightness.

BearKey bullets

Analyst target and revision visibility is absent in the packet, so post-print follow-through is harder to validate.
Fleet renewal requires continued capital allocation discipline and execution on vessel purchases and sales.
Special dividends are episodic, so cash-return visibility can fade if rates normalize.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 results and $1.00 special dividend

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $12 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +27% / -26%

Vs latest close: Bull +27% · Base +2% · Bear -26%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $15 (p=25%)Base Target: $12 (p=50%)Bear Target: $9 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary-source evidence is constructive: Q1 was profitable, revenue was strong, and the company reaffirmed shareholder returns through a $1.00 special dividend. The company also highlighted record Q2-to-date rates and active fleet renewal, but it explicitly framed the outlook as volatile and geopolitically sensitive. Secondary coverage reported an initial after-hours gain of roughly 2.3% after the print, yet no analyst target or estimate revision data is available in the packet, so this remains a cautious monitoring setup rather than a clean rerate.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Record Q2-to-date tanker rates stay elevated
Fleet renewal continues through vessel purchases and sales

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$15 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=25% prob

Price $12 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +27% · Base +2% · Bear -26%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-02
Q1 2026 results and $1.00 special dividend
Teekay reported Q1 2026 results with $47.7M of GAAP net income ($0.55/share) on $285.8M of revenue and declared a $1.00 special cash dividend payable June 2 to shareholders of record May 26; the company framed the result as evidence of strong tanker-market conditions [#IR-2026-05-14-TK-Recap].
Prob 95.00% • Move 2.00% • Priced-in 80.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Record Q2-to-date tanker rates stay elevated
2026-12-31
Management said Q1 spot tanker rates were among the highest ever for the period and that Q2-to-date rates reached new record levels, driven by Venezuela/Iran disruption and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty; that supports cash generation but keeps the outlook highly cyclical and headline-sensitive [#IR-2026-05-14-TK-Recap].
Prob 70% • Move 4% • Priced-in 55%
Fleet renewal continues through vessel purchases and sales
2027-12-31
The group agreed to buy two Korean resale Suezmax newbuildings for $190M, sold one 2009-built Suezmax for $53.5M, and said it has acquired or agreed to acquire five mid-size tankers while selling or agreeing to sell four older vessels since the start of the year [#IR-2026-05-14-TK-Recap].
Prob 60% • Move 3% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Analyst target and revision visibility is absent in the packet, so post-print follow-through is harder to validate.
Fleet renewal requires continued capital allocation discipline and execution on vessel purchases and sales.
Special dividends are episodic, so cash-return visibility can fade if rates normalize.
Tanker demand and rates remain highly sensitive to geopolitics, especially Venezuela/Iran disruption and Strait of Hormuz conditions.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NAT	Closest tanker peer in the packet set; similar spot-rate and dividend sensitivity, with comparable cyclical cash-return leverage.
TEN	Direct tanker-shipping comparator with overlapping cycle exposure and dividend sensitivity; useful as a read-through on mid-sized tanker sentiment.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-29

AI Stock Memo: TK - Teekay - RankAlpha