SWKS

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Skyworks Solutions

As of 2026-05-08/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Qorvo merger remains the largest strategic swing factor and the biggest non-operating overhang • 2027-03-31

Expected move: -19%

Biggest risk

The bearish read is that a beat was not enough because revenue was still slightly below the year-ago quarter, management still expects normal mobile seasonality next quarter, and the market remains unconvinced that diversification offsets handset exposure and merger complexity. Delayed analyst target-change and estimate-revision data were not reliably available in the checked evidence, so there is no confirmed post-print upward revision signal to lean on.

Invalidation

Break below $52 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The strongest post-print read is that Skyworks beat its own Q2 guide, guided Q3 above a weak market framing, and pointed to healthy mobile demand plus double-digit Broad Markets growth. If investors accept that Broad Markets can remain around the low-40s mix with continued Wi-Fi, data-center and automotive support, the stock can stabilize from a depressed operating narrative.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-08

Base target

$64

p=50%

Bull target

$78

p=25%

Bear target

$52

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings setup improved, but the market still wants proof the reset is durable
Android design win and Broad Markets mix shift are the main fundamental upside levers
The strongest post-print read is that Skyworks beat its own Q2 guide, guided Q3 above a weak market framing, and pointed to healthy mobile demand plus double-digit Broad Markets growth.

BearKey bullets

FTC Second Request on the Qorvo transaction remains unresolved, extending timing uncertainty and preserving regulatory failure risk [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Inventory rose to $885.6 million at 2026-04-03 from $754.7 million at 2025-10-03, which raises execution and demand-mix risk if handset or Broad Markets demand softens [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Management still expects Mobile to decline low-single digits sequentially in fiscal Q3 on normal seasonality, so the earnings beat did not remove handset exposure risk [#8-K-2026-05-05].

WatchKey bullets

Qorvo merger remains the largest strategic swing factor and the biggest non-operating overhang

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $64 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: -1% / -34%

Vs latest close: Bull -1% · Base -19% · Bear -34%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $78 (p=25%)Base Target: $64 (p=50%)Bear Target: $52 (p=25%)

Commentary

This T+3 follow-up confirmed the company earnings source and showed a better-than-feared quarter, but sentiment still reads mixed rather than bullish. Primary evidence improved versus the prior baseline because the earnings release beat prior company guidance and added a large Android design-win datapoint, yet packet headlines and checked market coverage indicate the stock was sold after the print anyway. With no reliable broad analyst-revision set available as of 2026-05-08 and the Qorvo review still unresolved, the setup remains a cautious monitoring view instead of a clean rerating thesis.

As of 2026-05-08 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings setup improved, but the market still wants proof the reset is durable
Android design win and Broad Markets mix shift are the main fundamental upside levers

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$78 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$64 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$52 / p=25% prob

Price $79 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -1% · Base -19% · Bear -34%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2027-03-31
Qorvo merger remains the largest strategic swing factor and the biggest non-operating overhang
The pending Qorvo transaction is still expected to close early in calendar 2027, but the FTC Second Request remains outstanding, extending the HSR waiting period until 30 days after substantial compliance unless terminated sooner. The same filing also notes a potential $100 million fee if certain regulatory approvals fail, which keeps the regulatory path as a material event risk even after stockholder approval [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Prob 55.00% • Move 15.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings setup improved, but the market still wants proof the reset is durable
2026-08-04
Skyworks reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $944 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.15, exceeding the high end of its prior revenue guide and above the prior midpoint EPS guide, then guided fiscal Q3 revenue to $900 million-$950 million with non-GAAP EPS of $1.03 at the midpoint. Management said Mobile outperformed expectations and Broad Markets should be about 43% of sales in Q3, but the mixed stock reaction suggests investors still question durability rather than the quarter itself [#8-K-2026-05-05].
Prob 75% • Move 7% • Priced-in 65%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Android design win and Broad Markets mix shift are the main fundamental upside levers
2027-05-05
Management highlighted a multi-generational Android OEM design win expected to generate more than $1 billion of revenue through 2030, plus continued Wi-Fi 7, data-center and automotive momentum. If Broad Markets keeps compounding and reaches a larger share of sales, Skyworks can reduce the market's dependence on handset-only framing [#8-K-2026-05-05].
Prob 60% • Move 12% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

FTC Second Request on the Qorvo transaction remains unresolved, extending timing uncertainty and preserving regulatory failure risk [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Inventory rose to $885.6 million at 2026-04-03 from $754.7 million at 2025-10-03, which raises execution and demand-mix risk if handset or Broad Markets demand softens [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Management still expects Mobile to decline low-single digits sequentially in fiscal Q3 on normal seasonality, so the earnings beat did not remove handset exposure risk [#8-K-2026-05-05].
Reliable post-print analyst revision breadth was not available in the checked evidence, limiting confidence in whether earnings follow-through is building or fading.
The stock reaction stayed mixed after results, implying investors may be focused more on durability and merger uncertainty than on a single-quarter beat.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CRUS	Cirrus Logic is a closer mobile-component peer; its handset concentration helps frame why Skyworks' post-earnings beat still did not earn a clean rerating without stronger proof that diversification is becoming durable.
AVGO	Broadcom is a scale benchmark in RF and connectivity with far broader infrastructure exposure, underscoring the diversification gap Skyworks is trying to close through Broad Markets growth and the pending Qorvo combination.
ALGM	Allegro is less directly comparable on mobile, but it is useful as an auto/industrial analog benchmark because Skyworks is leaning on automotive and other Broad Markets categories to offset handset cyclicality.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-08

AI Stock Memo: SWKS - Skyworks Solutions - RankAlpha