STTK

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+1

Shattuck Labs

As of 2026-05-04/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

SL-325 Phase 1 data still frames the main re-rating window in Q2 2026 • 2026-06-30

Base target: $7 / p=45% prob

Biggest risk

For this May 4, 2026 T+1 follow-up, a new Q1 2026 earnings release, 8-K, or 10-Q was not located in SEC company sources checked, so earnings surprise, guidance revision, and analyst target-reset evidence are unavailable. That keeps the thesis from upgrading and leaves investors relying on the March update rather than a fresh company checkpoint.

Invalidation

Break below $5 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull case is still a monitoring-style biotech setup: March company disclosures pointed to a near-complete Phase 1 program, Q2 2026 human data, a possible Q3 2026 Phase 2 Crohn's start, and runway guidance into 2029 that included first-quarter ATM proceeds and warrant assumptions [#8-K-2026-03-05]. If the Phase 1 package shows clean safety, durable receptor occupancy, and a credible path into Crohn's disease, the stock could move above the current median target baseline, but the weak direct peer set limits confidence in any valuation read-through.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-04

Base target

p=45%

Bull target

$10

p=25%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Lead DR3-based bispecific disclosure remains a secondary 1H 2026 sentiment hook
Phase 2 Crohn's start remains contingent on supportive Phase 1 data and regulatory alignment
The bull case is still a monitoring-style biotech setup: March company disclosures pointed to a near-complete Phase 1 program, Q2 2026 human data, a possible Q3 2026 Phase 2 Crohn's start, and runway guidance into 2029 that included first-quarter ATM proceeds and warrant assumptions [#8-K-2026-03-05].

BearKey bullets

No new Q1 2026 company earnings filing was located in SEC sources checked on May 4, 2026, leaving surprise, guidance, and immediate post-print reaction evidence unavailable for this T+1 run.
Runway guidance into 2029 in the March update included first-quarter ATM proceeds and assumed full exercise of outstanding warrants, so financing and dilution remain part of the risk picture rather than a fully removed concern [#8-K-2026-03-05].
STTK remains a low-coverage small-cap biotech whose near-term equity story is concentrated in a single lead asset, so weak or mixed SL-325 Phase 1 data would likely pressure both the program and the broader platform narrative.

WatchKey bullets

SL-325 Phase 1 data still frames the main re-rating window in Q2 2026

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $7 (p=45%)

Target spread vs base: +31% / -38%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $10 (p=25%)Base Target: $7 (p=45%)Bear Target: $5 (p=30%)

Commentary

Sentiment stays cautiously constructive but low-conviction. Primary-source visibility is still anchored by the March 5, 2026 company update rather than by a fresh earnings filing, and SEC company sources checked on May 4, 2026 did not show a new Q1 2026 earnings 8-K or 10-Q, so earnings surprise framing, analyst revision signal, and immediate market-reaction attribution are unavailable for this T+1 follow-up. The peer set is also thin: SYRE, ROIV, and MRK help frame pathway competition and validation, but they are not clean small-cap valuation peers. With low coverage, limited headline buzz, and a deterministic thesis-change score that is elevated mainly because the workflow expected an earnings checkpoint, this remains a tentative monitoring memo centered on upcoming SL-325 data rather than a high-confidence re-rating call.

As of 2026-05-04 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Lead DR3-based bispecific disclosure remains a secondary 1H 2026 sentiment hook
Phase 2 Crohn's start remains contingent on supportive Phase 1 data and regulatory alignment

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$5 / p=30% prob

Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

50.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

50.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
SL-325 Phase 1 data still frames the main re-rating window in Q2 2026
Shattuck said it expects to disclose SL-325 Phase 1 safety and tolerability, PK, receptor occupancy, duration of receptor occupancy, and immunogenicity data in the second quarter of 2026, with all six SAD cohorts complete and the final MAD cohort expected to complete enrollment in Q2 2026; with no newer company earnings filing located in SEC sources checked on May 4, 2026, this remains the central near-term catalyst [#8-K-2026-03-05].
Prob 78.00% • Move 32.00% • Priced-in 38.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Lead DR3-based bispecific disclosure remains a secondary 1H 2026 sentiment hook
2026-06-30
Shattuck said its lead bispecific antibody has entered IND-enabling activities and that it plans to disclose the targets, supporting preclinical data, and expected development timelines in the first half of 2026; this could help broaden the story, but it is still secondary to SL-325 execution [#8-K-2026-03-05].
Prob 62% • Move 10% • Priced-in 56%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Phase 2 Crohn's start remains contingent on supportive Phase 1 data and regulatory alignment
2026-09-30
Management said it expects to initiate a Phase 2 trial of SL-325 in Crohn's disease in the third quarter of 2026, subject to positive Phase 1 data and regulatory alignment, so the next leg of the thesis still depends on the quality of the upcoming human dataset rather than on generic biotech optimism [#8-K-2026-03-05].
Prob 55% • Move 22% • Priced-in 32%

Risks

No new Q1 2026 company earnings filing was located in SEC sources checked on May 4, 2026, leaving surprise, guidance, and immediate post-print reaction evidence unavailable for this T+1 run.
Runway guidance into 2029 in the March update included first-quarter ATM proceeds and assumed full exercise of outstanding warrants, so financing and dilution remain part of the risk picture rather than a fully removed concern [#8-K-2026-03-05].
STTK remains a low-coverage small-cap biotech whose near-term equity story is concentrated in a single lead asset, so weak or mixed SL-325 Phase 1 data would likely pressure both the program and the broader platform narrative.
The expected Phase 2 Crohn's initiation is explicitly contingent on positive Phase 1 data and regulatory alignment, creating execution and timing risk even if the initial readout is directionally acceptable [#8-K-2026-03-05].
The peer framework is weak: available comparisons are mostly pathway read-throughs rather than clean small-cap, same-stage, same-mechanism valuation comps, which caps conviction in scenario targets.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
SYRE	Spyre Therapeutics is the cleanest public pathway read-through because its IBD-focused pipeline includes anti-TL1A programs, but it is still not a direct valuation comp for STTK's DR3-blocking approach.
ROIV	Roivant is relevant through the Telavant/RVT-3101 TL1A history as a pathway-validation and investor-appetite reference, but its diversified structure and transaction history make it a weak peer for STTK valuation.
MRK	Merck's PRA023/MK-7240 exposure is useful only as a large-pharma benchmark for a clinically validated IBD pathway; it should not be treated as a small-cap biotech comp.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-04

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Symbol

Summary

SYRE

Spyre Therapeutics is the cleanest public pathway read-through because its IBD-focused pipeline includes anti-TL1A programs, but it is still not a direct valuation comp for STTK's DR3-blocking approach.

ROIV

Roivant is relevant through the Telavant/RVT-3101 TL1A history as a pathway-validation and investor-appetite reference, but its diversified structure and transaction history make it a weak peer for STTK valuation.

MRK

Merck's PRA023/MK-7240 exposure is useful only as a large-pharma benchmark for a clinically validated IBD pathway; it should not be treated as a small-cap biotech comp.