STRS

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Stratus Properties

As of 2026-05-19/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 beat plus Kingwood sale cash accelerates the wind-down • 2026-05-12

Expected move: +12%

Biggest risk

The stock is still a liquidation-execution trade, not a growth story. Any delay or repricing in Jones Crossing, New Caney, or the remaining Amarra assets, plus reserve/tax/debt leakage or a slower wind-down, would reduce realizable value and could pull the stock back toward the low-20s.

Invalidation

Break below $24 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The Q1 print strengthens the cash-return story: Kingwood generated meaningful proceeds, common EPS turned positive, and management continued to point to further asset sales that can bridge the company toward the liquidation range. If additional closings happen near stated values, the equity can migrate toward the upper end of the disclosed payout range.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-19

Base target

$33

p=50%

Bull target

$37

p=30%

Bear target

$24

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Realized distributions versus the stated liquidation range
The Q1 print strengthens the cash-return story: Kingwood generated meaningful proceeds, common EPS turned positive, and management continued to point to further asset sales that can bridge the company toward the liquidation range.
If additional closings happen near stated values, the equity can migrate toward the upper end of the disclosed payout range.

BearKey bullets

Final distributions can move lower if sale prices, debt payoffs, reserves, taxes, or wind-down costs come in worse than assumed.
Jones Crossing, New Caney, and the last Amarra Villas home are still subject to closing conditions or negotiation risk.
Stockholder approval for the Plan of Liquidation is still required.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 beat plus Kingwood sale cash accelerates the wind-down

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $33 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +28% / -19%

Vs latest close: Bull +28% · Base +12% · Bear -19%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $37 (p=30%)Base Target: $33 (p=50%)Bear Target: $24 (p=20%)

Commentary

The post-print read is cautiously positive but not transformative. The Q1 release confirmed real progress toward liquidation and the tape appears only modestly supportive, yet the market is still mostly pricing an execution-heavy wind-down. With no meaningful analyst revision signal found in the checked sources, conviction stays moderate and monitoring-oriented rather than bullish.

As of 2026-05-19 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Realized distributions versus the stated liquidation range

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$37 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$33 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$24 / p=20% prob

Price $29 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 12%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +28% · Base +12% · Bear -19%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.58

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-12
Q1 beat plus Kingwood sale cash accelerates the wind-down
Stratus reported first-quarter 2026 net income attributable to common stockholders of $6.6 million, or $0.82 per diluted share, versus a loss a year ago, helped by the $60.8 million Kingwood Place sale, $73.5 million of cash and cash equivalents at March 31, and continuing monetization progress on Jones Crossing, New Caney, and Amarra Villas [#8-K-2026-05-12] [#10-Q-2026-05-12].
Prob 75.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 55.00%
EVENT2026-06-30
Stockholder approval remains the key gate to liquidation execution
The board-approved Plan of Liquidation still requires stockholder approval; if approved, Stratus expects an orderly sale of substantially all assets and the return of net proceeds over time, with the company's stated potential liquidating distributions of $29.73 to $37.69 per share still contingent on timing, sale prices, liabilities, reserves, and related assumptions [#10-K-2026-03-27] [#8-K-2026-05-12].
Prob 70.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 68.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Realized distributions versus the stated liquidation range
2027-03-31
The long-duration driver is whether final cash distributions land near the disclosed $29.73-$37.69 per-share range; that outcome depends on closing remaining asset sales, controlling wind-down costs, and limiting leakage from debt, reserves, and taxes [#10-K-2026-03-27] [#8-K-2026-05-12].
Prob 55% • Move 14% • Priced-in 70%

Risks

Final distributions can move lower if sale prices, debt payoffs, reserves, taxes, or wind-down costs come in worse than assumed.
Jones Crossing, New Caney, and the last Amarra Villas home are still subject to closing conditions or negotiation risk.
Stockholder approval for the Plan of Liquidation is still required.
The quarter benefited from a large Kingwood sale gain, so reported earnings can normalize lower if further monetizations are delayed.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ARL	Closest small-cap property-owner comparator; useful for thinking about asset monetization and balance-sheet optionality, but it lacks STRS's explicit liquidation framing.
TCI	Another small-cap real-estate owner with value-realization characteristics; comparable for valuation discipline, though the asset mix and liquidity profile differ.
MLP	Useful as a land-rich Texas real-estate comp for monetization cadence and execution risk, but not a direct liquidation analogue.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-19

AI Stock Memo: STRS - Stratus Properties - RankAlpha