AI Stock Memo: STNG - Scorpio Tankers - RankAlpha

STNG

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Scorpio Tankers

As of 2026-05-08/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 vessel-sale closings and refinancing can extend the balance-sheet self-help story • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +10%

Biggest risk

The main pushback is that Scorpio is still fundamentally a freight-cycle name. Even after the better Q2 booking snapshot, a meaningful portion of the quarter remains open, and the stock’s upside still relies on spot rates, asset values, and vessel-sale execution holding together. I did not retrieve clear delayed analyst target revisions or estimate-change data by May 8, 2026, so the post-print revision signal remains incomplete.

Invalidation

Break below $70 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The post-earnings company filing materially improved the near-term setup versus the prior baseline: Q2 booking percentages and rates were stronger, Q1 earnings were sharply above the prior year, liquidity remained very high, and management expanded capital returns through a bigger repurchase authorization and dividend support. Secondary coverage also indicated the print beat consensus, reinforcing that the report was better than feared.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-08

Base target

$82

p=45%

Bull target

$96

p=25%

Bear target

$70

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q2 2026 bookings reset higher after the earnings release
Net-cash balance sheet and larger repurchase capacity support per-share value if rates stay constructive
The post-earnings company filing materially improved the near-term setup versus the prior baseline: Q2 booking percentages and rates were stronger, Q1 earnings were sharply above the prior year, liquidity remained very high, and management expanded capital returns through a bigger repurchase authorization and dividend support.

BearKey bullets

A meaningful share of Q2 revenue days remains unfixed, leaving earnings sensitive to spot-rate volatility even after the stronger May 5 booking update.
Capital-allocation upside depends on vessel-sale closings and refinancing execution in Q2 2026.
Delayed analyst revision data was not clearly available from retrieved sources, reducing confidence in how durable the post-earnings reaction is.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 vessel-sale closings and refinancing can extend the balance-sheet self-help story

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $82 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +29% / -6%

Vs latest close: Bull +29% · Base +10% · Bear -6%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $96 (p=25%)Base Target: $82 (p=45%)Bear Target: $70 (p=30%)

Commentary

This T+3 follow-up improved the thesis from a pure monitoring setup to a still-cautious hold. The company source confirmed a strong Q1 print, stronger-than-baseline Q2 booking disclosure, large liquidity, and expanded buyback capacity on May 5, 2026. However, I did not retrieve clear delayed analyst target revisions or estimate changes by May 8, 2026, and the May 7 anchor price of $84.69 already sits above the packet’s summarized median target, so the stock looks less obviously mispriced than the operating update alone would suggest. Net: post-earnings tone improved, but confidence should stay moderate because the next leg still depends on freight rates and Q2 fixing rather than a fully de-risked forward view. [#8K-2026-05-05]

As of 2026-05-08 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q2 2026 bookings reset higher after the earnings release
Net-cash balance sheet and larger repurchase capacity support per-share value if rates stay constructive

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$96 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$82 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$70 / p=30% prob

Price $75 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +29% · Base +10% · Bear -6%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.20

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Q2 vessel-sale closings and refinancing can extend the balance-sheet self-help story
The May 5, 2026 filing said Scorpio agreed in April to sell three 2014-built LR2 tankers for $195 million expected to close in Q2 2026, and also received a Bank of America commitment for up to $50.0 million to refinance two 2015-built LR2s at SOFR plus 1.20%. Execution would further reshape the fleet and preserve liquidity flexibility. [#8K-2026-05-05]
Prob 70.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q2 2026 bookings reset higher after the earnings release
2026-06-30
The May 5, 2026 earnings filing showed materially improved second-quarter coverage versus the earlier low-booking setup: as of May 5, LR2 pool/spot days were 41% booked at about $96,000 per day, MR days were 53% booked at about $66,000 per day, and Handymax days were 47% booked at about $61,000 per day. That improves near-term earnings visibility, but the quarter is still not fully fixed and remains rate-sensitive. [#8K-2026-05-05]
Prob 65% • Move 7% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Net-cash balance sheet and larger repurchase capacity support per-share value if rates stay constructive
2026-12-31
The May 5, 2026 filing reported $1.4 billion of unrestricted cash and cash equivalents plus $711.8 million of undrawn revolver capacity as of May 1, 2026. It also confirmed a $375.0 million 1.75% convertible note deal, concurrent repurchase of about 1.34 million shares at $74.36, and replenishment of the repurchase authorization to $500.0 million. The longer-duration upside is real, but it still depends on freight rates holding up after the Q2 fixing window. [#8K-2026-05-05]
Prob 55% • Move 9% • Priced-in 65%

Risks

A meaningful share of Q2 revenue days remains unfixed, leaving earnings sensitive to spot-rate volatility even after the stronger May 5 booking update.
Capital-allocation upside depends on vessel-sale closings and refinancing execution in Q2 2026.
Delayed analyst revision data was not clearly available from retrieved sources, reducing confidence in how durable the post-earnings reaction is.
The larger buyback and cheap convert improve flexibility, but they do not remove exposure to a reversal in product-tanker rates or asset values.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TRMD	TORM remains a close operating peer because of its large product-tanker footprint across LR2, LR1, and MR classes, making it useful for separating Scorpio-specific execution from broader product-tanker rate moves.
HAFN	Hafnia is a direct product-tanker benchmark with meaningful overlap in end markets and fleet exposure, so it is a practical read-through for whether Scorpio’s earnings power is company-specific or mostly sector beta.
ASC	Ardmore Shipping is a smaller but relevant MR/product-tanker comparator; its narrower exposure helps test whether Scorpio’s MR and capital-allocation narrative is differentiated.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-08