SSRM

AI Memo

SSR Mining

As of 2026-05-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Hod Maden stake sale monetizes optionality • 2026-05-18

Expected move: +19%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that SSR Mining remains highly exposed to commodity-price swings and operating execution, and the Hod Maden transaction trades away direct ownership for royalty exposure; without fresh analyst revisions or a stronger market re-rate, the stock may keep discounting the asset base.

Invalidation

Break below $25 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull case is that Q1 execution, cash generation, and maintained guidance show the core mine plan is still working, while the Hod Maden royalty sale converts an illiquid stake into value with less capital intensity; the liquidity base also supports continued buybacks [#8-K-2026-05-05] [#8-K-2026-05-18].

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

$36

p=50%

Bull target

$41

p=25%

Bear target

$25

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 execution and cash flow stayed on track
Liquidity and capital returns remain the longer rerating lever
The bull case is that Q1 execution, cash generation, and maintained guidance show the core mine plan is still working, while the Hod Maden royalty sale converts an illiquid stake into value with less capital intensity; the liquidity base also supports continued buybacks [#8-K-2026-05-05] [#8-K-2026-05-18].

BearKey bullets

Any miss versus 2026 production, AISC, or cash-flow expectations would undercut the current execution story.
Gold and silver price weakness can quickly compress margins and reduce the value of the rerating thesis.
No analyst estimate revisions or quantified post-print market reaction are in the packet, so forward visibility remains limited.

WatchKey bullets

Hod Maden stake sale monetizes optionality

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $36 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +38% / -18%

Vs latest close: Bull +38% · Base +19% · Bear -18%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $41 (p=25%)Base Target: $36 (p=50%)Bear Target: $25 (p=25%)

Commentary

Coverage remains company-led and event driven. The Q1 2026 release [#8-K-2026-05-05] supported the cash-flow and buyback story, and the May 18 Hod Maden royalty swap [#8-K-2026-05-18] adds another portfolio-simplification step. Still, the packet does not include analyst target revisions or a quantified post-print price reaction, so the view should stay cautious rather than aggressively bullish.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 execution and cash flow stayed on track
Liquidity and capital returns remain the longer rerating lever

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$41 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$25 / p=25% prob

Price $30 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 18%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +38% · Base +19% · Bear -18%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-18
Hod Maden stake sale monetizes optionality
On May 18, SSR Mining sold its 20% equity interest in Hod Maden to Lidya Mines in exchange for a 4.0% net smelter return royalty, simplifying the portfolio and converting part of the project value into a royalty while preserving some long-dated upside [#8-K-2026-05-18].
Prob 85.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 execution and cash flow stayed on track
2026-05-05
The May 5 results showed 109,914 gold-equivalent ounces produced, AISC of $2,433 per payable ounce, operating cash flow from continuing operations of $299.6 million, and free cash flow from continuing operations of $210.8 million; management said the quarter was in line with expectations and that full-year 2026 guidance remained intact [#8-K-2026-05-05].
Prob 95% • Move 5% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Liquidity and capital returns remain the longer rerating lever
2026-09-30
The Q1 release highlighted a $634.1 million cash balance, no significant long-term debt, and roughly $300 million of share repurchases completed after quarter-end, leaving capital deployment and buybacks as the main longer-duration rerating path [#8-K-2026-05-05].
Prob 65% • Move 8% • Priced-in 55%

Risks

Any miss versus 2026 production, AISC, or cash-flow expectations would undercut the current execution story.
Gold and silver price weakness can quickly compress margins and reduce the value of the rerating thesis.
No analyst estimate revisions or quantified post-print market reaction are in the packet, so forward visibility remains limited.
The Hod Maden sale monetizes upside but also reduces direct ownership in a long-dated project.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PAAS	Closest precious-metals peer for comparing silver/gold leverage, free-cash-flow conversion, and capital-return discipline.
CDE	Operating peer for mine-level execution, cost control, and how investors respond to production surprises.
KGC	Larger gold producer for valuation and balance-sheet comparison, though less silver-exposed than SSRM.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-29

AI Stock Memo: SSRM - SSR Mining - RankAlpha